Enten reacts to polls claiming a +4 GOP gain

[0:00] There is something of a fight going on right now inside nerd data world and it has to do with the [0:08] polling we've seen around the country and it has to do with the difference we've seen in some polls [0:13] between registered voters and likely voters. Now let me tell you there's no better fight [0:20] than a fight between data nerds and with us now is CNN chief data analyst Harriet and this might [0:26] sound I think a little bit obscure in the weeds but I think it's important and I think people will find [0:32] this very interesting here. So what are we seeing in the polling right now in terms of the difference [0:36] between people that the pollsters are calling registered voters and likely voters? Yeah okay [0:41] so registered voters are all those people who are registered to vote. Likely voters are the ones who [0:46] are likely to show up and vote in the election right and those are the ones that we often pay [0:51] attention to and what's so interesting here is we see this massive split between what we see in the [0:57] national polls for the national house ballot and what we see in the key senate races. So what do we [1:02] see the average gain going from all the likely voters. Republicans are gaining just a point just a point [1:08] in the national house ballot but look at this in the key senate races they are averaging a four point [1:14] gain significantly higher than we see in the national polls. Now I should note that this is among pollsters [1:19] who released both registered voter and likely voter results. That's what we're looking at here but what [1:25] we're seeing is amongst that group Republicans are gaining significantly more in the senate races [1:29] than they are in the house races. So when you look at likely voters four points higher for Republicans in [1:35] these key races. Correct. When we look at past elections right has that been the case? Yeah I don't buy this [1:42] four number. I just don't. I just don't. I think it's significantly too high. Why do I say that? [1:49] Well why don't we look here. The gain in party ID in midterms with Republican presidents like we have [1:54] this year. Okay and what we're talking about going from all to validated voters. Look at this in the [1:59] party ID from 1982 to 2018 nationally. Look at this. Republicans gained one point on average. How about [2:06] in 2018? Again it was one point on average. That looks a whole heck of a lot more like what we're seeing [2:12] in the national polling than what we are seeing in that key senate race polling where right now it's a [2:17] four point that is very much not in line with what we've seen historically when we look at the national [2:22] party ID. And what about the key races again? Yeah okay so you say oh but you know that that's the [2:28] national. What about the key races? Well why don't we just look back at 2018 okay going from all the [2:33] validated voters. Look in the key 2018 senate races Republicans gained but again it was just two points [2:39] not anywhere close not anywhere close to that four points. And if you look in the key 2026 senate races [2:45] back in 2018 Republicans gained just a point in those races. Again much more like what we're seeing [2:51] in that national numbers than we're seeing in those senate key senate race numbers. And so to me I look [2:56] at those numbers and I go I don't buy it. I think Democrats are actually probably going to do better [3:01] on election day than those likely voter numbers are in at least some of those states. Yeah and by the way [3:05] good on the pollsters who release both and let you see a little bit of the methodology. This is not [3:10] a critique necessarily the pollsters. I'm just saying what historically has held. So take a look [3:14] at you as a consumer. Take a look at both of them and consider it for yourselves there. In general right [3:19] now what are the prediction markets saying about all this? Yeah and this is the other thing you know [3:22] the prediction markets which are trying to take all this into account. The chance that Democrats win [3:26] the senate in 2026 according to the Cauchy prediction market. Look at this. It's a 64 percent chance [3:30] that Democrats do in fact win back control of the senate. That's up significantly from where we were [3:35] just a few months ago. All right Harry and I appreciate this discussion. I hope the audience [3:39] appreciates it. It's a little bit of nerdom but you know we're two nerds so we figure why not join [3:44] the nerd party. It is an interesting discussion that is out there right now. Go to social media. You [3:48] can find some very angry data people right now. Oh yeah. Harry and thank you very much. Among the [3:53] Republican leaders on the trail for critical races today is House Speaker Mike Johnson. He's in Iowa. [3:59] CNN's Manu Raju caught up with the speaker while the speaker was campaigning for vulnerable [4:04] Republican congressman Zach Nunn. That was in Fort Dodge, Iowa. Might we talk to Mike Johnson about [4:12] the president's travels and whether or not the president is really helping Republican candidates [4:18] as he argues. There's no drag at all. The president's out. No drag? No drag at all. The president [4:25] is out doing these events and he's having huge turnout as you've seen. It's just like 2024. That's what [4:30] it feels like to me. I have been in all the swing districts. I'm going everywhere. I've traveled more, [4:34] campaigned more than anybody this whole cycle, of course. And I've seen the voters on the ground. [4:38] I'm telling you, the polls are wrong. They are inaccurate. They're underrepresenting Republicans. [4:42] And many of the pollsters have admitted that. I mean, and CNN's run a story this week that [4:46] acknowledged that 15 out of the last 16 elections, Republicans were underrepresented, underestimated [4:52] in the October generic ballot by an average of four points. So the polling is inaccurate. [4:56] Republicans aren't responding anymore. They're not participating. But then why are you guys battling [4:59] in these deep red Trump districts? I mean, this is where the battle for the House is. You're spending millions in these [5:03] very Republican districts. These are difficult districts every cycle. Zach and Marionette [5:08] Miller-Meeks in Iowa, for example, here. There's some Trump plus 10, Trump plus 14 districts where [5:13] you guys are fighting right now. Well, you've seen very consistent outcomes in Iowa. We always win, [5:17] but it's close. I noted to the group here this morning, Marionette Miller-Meeks won her first race [5:21] a few terms ago by six votes in Iowa. So Iowa's a battleground for us. We have battlegrounds around [5:26] the country. Some are in deep blue states. Some are in red states. But that's the way it shakes out. [5:29] There was redistricting done in a lot of states. And so we have to win in the districts that are [5:34] presented. And we're leaving everything on the field to get it done. [5:37] How much does that have to do with concerns about affordability, gas prices? And should your [5:42] party have done more on issues of gas prices, in particular, given the voter blowback here? [5:47] No. Listen, every election is about the economy. It's always about kitchen table issues, as we say. [5:52] We have done what we said we're going to do. We gave the largest tax cut in history. [5:55] What gas prices have done? [5:56] In Iowa right now, the average Iowan has $3,100 in their pocket that they didn't have to send [6:01] to Washington because of our bill. The average household in Iowa is $6,000 plus in real wage [6:07] increases. We cut taxes on tips, overtime, social security. This is real money for hardworking [6:12] families. Gas prices are too high. But this is a very important distinction. They're too high right [6:16] now because of the yet unresolved conflict in Iran. We think that turns a corner right after the [6:21] election. [6:21] So you heard the speaker there, very rosy, saying that they are going to keep the House [6:27] of Representatives. But Manu asked the speaker, what happens if they don't? What happens if Democrats [6:32] do win? And he asked the speaker to address concerns about whether the president and Republicans [6:40] will accept those results. [6:42] Will you vow to seat every Democrat who wins on January 3rd? [6:47] Of course. This is nonsense narrative. We are going to follow the law. [6:51] What if Trump says it's a rigged election? [6:54] Look, I'm a constitutional law attorney. I've always been sitting consistent about this. [6:58] This is going to be a no drama swearing in ceremony. But we're going to hold the majority. [7:01] And I'm going to be the speaker of the House. And when I administer the oath there, one on January [7:05] 3rd, we'll administer the oath to everybody. [7:06] If Trump says don't seat them, you'll resist them. [7:08] I'll do my job as the speaker of the House. The president has vowed, of course, he wants [7:12] to follow the law as well. That's what's going to happen. [7:14] Our smart reporters are here now. Tamara, it's so interesting to hear this. [7:22] I mean, he has to say what he's saying, of course. [7:24] Of course. [7:25] And it is true that a lot of the seats, particularly in Iowa, but around the country, have been close. [7:31] But it's also true what Manu said, that they are competing in very red territory. They're [7:39] back on their heels in so many more districts than Republicans had assumed, including districts [7:45] that were redrawn, intended to benefit them just last year, in the last year. [7:51] Yeah, I have reporting out this week that of the 15 districts that were drawn to be more [7:57] Republican, only about a third of them are thought to be a sure thing for Republicans. [8:02] The others are much more competitive. They are some of the most competitive and most [8:08] expensive congressional races in the country, places like Florida 25, the districts in Texas, [8:14] North Carolina's first congressional district. Millions, like $40 million is being spent on [8:21] air, according to Add Impact, in some of those races. That is money that they wouldn't have [8:26] expected to have to spend in districts that are Trump plus 10, Trump plus more.