JOBS REPORT LIVE: The Number That Could Force a Fed RATE CUT + Bitcoin & XRP Pump

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CastingWords Transcription by CastingWords Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah Transcription by CastingWords Transcription by CastingWords Transcription by CastingWords Transcription by CastingWords Transcription by CastingWords Transcription by CastingWords Transcription by CastingWords Transcription by CastingWords Just let me know, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah don't say yes or no to martin's question uh forget about that for a second focus on me uh yes or no to my question i just asked you guys are you enjoying the show are you enjoying the level of information is it too much are you not enjoying it you wish martin was live instead just say yes or no are you enjoying the show so far um uh and then we're gonna go over to our jobs cheat sheet if you have if you have just tuned in we uh you can always scroll back see what we're covering we went through the market watch we went for the top stories uh spoke a little bit about me we'll circle back to that but we're getting ready for the jobs report so please do hit the like button uh if you have just tuned in you haven't missed anything really about the jobs report we'll cover it all again uh yes or no yes or no yes uh i have been wait for i have 40k 40k waiting for a bitcoin crash way too much money in the bank pack openings um i hope you get the i hope you get the price you want maybe 40k could buy you a bitcoin uh we'll see i was made redundant so i'm waiting to trade in uh pack openings i'm sorry to hear about that but um yeah i hope i hope things work out well for you a human being liz says bell at the bell need need more financial advice and no no financial advice here ghana says yes as you can see i'm just giving you information no no i'm not telling you what to do that's not what i do uh luck says yes bocky says yes yes sensei a little slower talking would be much better it's so much information to get out sorry liz sorry uh can you tell us why what is good and what is bad yes i can but if you are a newsletter premium member you'll be able to see it in the table uh it's much clearer for you guys it's the newsletter we send out the cheat sheet for the main events love it sensei always delivered uh to your best thank you mr t absolutely yes spoken much um paul says heck yeah enjoying the show uh luck says yes martin mark says yes yes we enjoy yes could we do the poppers again though oh god the poppers are you talking about the the charity event that we did last year uh that that i i'm still fine finding um confetti everywhere slim will uk says yes yes martin was right again god who's are we saying yes the master yesterday i'm so confused i'm hoping for 49 yes enjoying i'm hoping for 40k i'm hoping for 40k yeah yeah it could be the lower end of what what could occur um yes i'm it but again i wouldn't just i'd probably ladder in yes i'm enjoying the show haven't seen you on youtubers match the sharpshooter yeah a lot a lot behind the scenes uh you would have seen me in the newsletter and and the sunday shows and one or two events a week i've been doing but yeah uh we'll see maybe we'll do more pack opening says can finally buy one bitcoin that'd be interesting yes well laid out screen thanks no worries mark yes excellent work okay now now now that now that i know i'm doing an amazing job let's go on to the main event um which is uh the the cheat sheet so today's jobs uh jobs report uh jobs day playbook what special guest [00:41:05] Speaker 2: at paulman to richmond tipped one dollar and 99 cents through super chat when is your shirt going to be made smiley face emoji [00:41:15] Speaker 1: thank you paulman to richmond i have absolutely no idea what you're talking about though where is your shirt when is your shirt going to be made what is your shirt someone help me out he meant when is your where was your shirt made from he meant where is your shirt made from that doesn't make sense either where is your shirt made from what is your shirt made but what do you mean uh it looks italian the shirt i don't know uh it's from reese i don't know if you guys know about the brand it's like a uk brand uh anyway what country uh i think they make their shirt i don't know where reese makes their shirts [00:42:01] Speaker 3: probably um my god do i have to check i guess we've got a super chat do i have to check where it's made let me see the label [00:42:09] Speaker 1: yeah it's from reese made in turkey there you go turkey i hope that answers the question made in turkey um he wants to see your shirt in the martin village market all right we're going off track i don't know what's going on in the chat we'll come back to this after the after the main event we need to focus on the jobs report so let's get back to the jobs playbook so the 30 second brief let me read this for you um everything lands at once today the june jobs report has been forward forward to today because the u.s markets are closed friday for independence day so today is the day we're gonna get the jobs report normally it would be on a friday it would actually be tomorrow but a long weekend in the u.s wall street going to the beach and we're getting it today uh independence day tomorrow markets are shut tonight the bond market will close early in the u.s that's about 7 7 p.m uk time about 2 p.m eastern time which actually means there's there's probably thin liquid uh liquidity especially for the rest of the day i would expect the wall street guys uh to to to take the day off after the jobs report so maybe there'll be a little liquid a little bit of liquidity this morning but less than normal but more than normal because it's a jobs report so it probably averages out to a normal day in the morning and then low liquidity going into long weekend uh again today is very important because we're not looking at rate cuts we're looking at rate hikes and uh inflation is at 3.4 percent headlines about four percent and now the market as we showed you earlier is pricing in a 34 chance that they're going to raise rates this month with kevin wash kevin wash second meeting potentially raising rates wonder what donald trump will say that would be interesting but only if the jobs data is super strong and the inflation data is uh very high as well that's that's the only way i see them raising rates so if the first first item is jobs what's it's going to be like let's have a look uh i don't know what's going on in the chat what's going on let me go back to the chat there's something weird going on the chat martin's copying and pasting what is going on here uh sensei made by reese reese what's going on reese reese r-e-i-s-s nobody cares your bloody shirts from someone asked me someone gave me a super chat told me to look at the label someone said is it italian where is your shirt i don't know what's going on people ask about my shirt it means when will there be a shirt in the martin luka shop okay yeah great um a shirt i don't know if there will be a sensei shirt in the martin luka shop we'll have to see martin being made personal shirt ideas on asking if you do the same shirt a shirt in this yeah it depends i like good quarter yeah we'll have to see what we can do we have to see what where we can get these shirts maybe we have to make a partnership with reese and see if they do a a shirt um silk dodgy turkish shirt from re no what okay what is going on uh with autographs patching up 1.5x just before the data drops yeah data is coming out so we need to go back to data maybe so utter nonsense data is better than thanks i said said you like excellent yeah i do like excellent but again not at these prices um a lot of the altcoins i'll just wait for um for the final capitulation to even think about uh but yeah excellent i'll think about it a little bit earlier it's it's on my it's on my radar uh so yeah that's that but what what is dropping we've got non for okay so 14 minutes to go everything is dropping at the same time 1 30 p.m uk time 8 30 p.m new york time 9 30 p.m uh tokyo time what is happening non-farm payrolls the most important the consensus is 110 the previous is 172 that is the main event then there's two other things that are important which is the average hourly earnings month over month consensus is 0.3 average hourly earnings 3.5 and then unemployment rate is always cool to look at is that it's a little bit the next most important 4.3 percent and then these aren't too important initial jobless claims we get that every week unless it's a big surprise the labor force participation and you see you six unemployment they're a little bit important but they're just at the end of the day a little bit of seasoning so one report seven numbers three that matter payrolls wages unemployment the other four are seasoning do not react to the first headline that flashes the market's real verdict usually comes once wages and revisions prior months are digested often 15 to 30 minutes and you'll see where the market wants to head let's talk about the main the main one non-farm payrolls let me remind you this is where we're going to see the data first it'll be before bloomberg will cover it it'll be right um it'll be right here you have to look at the one that says non-farm payrolls uh right here it's a little bit highlighted just above my head it says 110 000 here it'll come up with the actual number there i'll announce the number then we'll go over to um bloomberg which is uh this morning but it was firing on all cylinders [00:47:45] Speaker 4: in yesterday's session yeah it was up uh more than eight percent at one point because people see this is actually a positive revenue stream a really interesting upgrade or buy at least on meta and a question here about their abandonment of their ai model target is now 805 dollars i think from bank [00:48:02] Speaker 1: of america on meta and they were up quite nicely yesterday uh they are selling their ai power essentially interesting maybe they don't need to spend as much on it uh as well as making more money uh bullish for method but is it bullish for the whole industry we'll have to we have to do a deep dive into that anyway we'll go over to bloomberg uh which we'll have mike mckee on for the jobs data i will then give you my thoughts non-farm payrolls is the main event you might ask you might always hear about it but you have no idea what it is so if you don't here is the explanation sometimes i have to remind myself non-farm payrolls is the monthly count of how many jobs in the u.s economy was added or lost how many jobs in the u.s economy were added or lost taken from a survey of hundreds of thousands of businesses so lots of data other jobs being added to the u.s economy are they being lost how much is being added how much is being lost but farm work is excluded so it's non-farm so not including farm work uh where is where the odd name comes from non-farm payrolls is because farm work is not excluded a little bit self-explanatory but there it is it is the single most market moving data release on the calendar because jobs are the engine of spending and spending is the engine of both growth and inflation uh so yeah if you've got a job you're going to spend money and if you're spending money it relates to inflation and growth the setup consensus looks for about a hundred and ten thousand jobs to be added in june so that number that you saw just above my head oh a little bit off my head now but just above my head here 110 000 the consensus what the market's priced in the market expects the market is positioned for the market is ready for a hundred and ten thousand jobs to be added um in june remember we just met july this is for june uh but that is actually already a sharp step down for may's surprisingly strong 172 000. so last month it was 172 000 this month we're expecting 110 000 that is already lower but at least the market's ready for it and some focus forecasts sit close to a hundred thousand the whisper leans hot white house advisor kevin hasett has already teased another strong number and the hot print is except exactly what a hike leaning fed does not doesn't not need handed to it essentially if the jobs market's super strong if the jobs market is hot and there's lots of jobs being added and there's no fear of recession the fed has the green light to raise rates it has the green light to hold rates there's no need for it to cut rates the only reason they'll cut rates is if the economy is really strong and and inflation's low and the jobs numbers are fairly low and all all jobs are too low that they need to cut rates to make sure um the jobs market's not collapsing so if we get really strong numbers which what kevin hasett which was one of the fed chair nominees uh has already sort of teased if we get a strong number 120 130 140 170 uh essentially above 110 the higher we are above 110 the hotter that number is the stronger that number is then maybe the market will start expecting rate hikes a bit more and the market will sell off so above 150 000 what does that mean for stocks what does that mean for crypto what does that mean for gold what does that mean for dollar well we've got the whole chart there i'm not gonna i'm not gonna go into it too much because again a lot of this is for our premium members uh but yeah uh then we've got average hourly earnings just to give you a glimpse of it essentially above 150 000 if we get that high it's risk off hike odds will jump record high tech is the most exposed to higher rate so the the the risk on assets won't perform well if we get above 150 if we get above 150 there'll be pressure in crypto crypto bitcoin probably lose 60 000 and we might start trending down again gold will also head down because higher rates raise the cost of holding a zero zero yield asset it's not very good i mean if you've got higher rates why would you hold gold when it's only gone up maybe five percent a year over time it has no yield it has no business uh so it it if you've got free money from high rates then you probably won't hold gold that's the theory behind it anyway dollar there's other reasons to hold gold but but that's why gold will go down on high jobs numbers and then if you're looking at the dollar and yields both will go up july hike moves um towards a coin flip on the other low on the other side if it's a big miss 50 000 and below a big miss that'll be a whipsaw first pop on the cut so firstly the market will pump but then the market will get scared are they worried about growth because if there's a growth scare if there's a recession fear then again we can head down again so it will pop first and then you need to see all the numbers will people start fearing for a recession so again if it's too low the market won't like it if it's somewhere like a miss between 50 and 90 000 but about 50 60 000 i would say is where you'll probably get a bounce a nice bounce in in stocks a nice bounce in crypto a nice bounce in gold and down on yields and the dollar uh so so we'll we'll assess it when it comes out in six minutes time again if you have just tuned in please do hit the like button please do subscribe the newsletter you can grab it for free sensei.news if you're on the premium newsletter with the cheat sheets with the um with exactly what will happen depending on what what occurs the explanations very clearly laid out you can read in a few minutes and understand it all not only do you get the cheat sheets you get the full daily newsletters two hours before the bell you get the uh trading view indicators the indicators i use to trade very very simple don't over complicate your charts it's backed up by academic research plus the chart training course eight years of charting uh put together in a three-hour course you'll learn everything you need to know about charting and again it's backed up academic research not like other people that try and sell you ai courses and all the rubbish out there uh you also get the net worth tracker you get the the 5 000 pound um portfolio challenge you get the access to discord uh you get uh the the training uh newsletters you get the sundays with censor private shows you get the one-on-one vm access and plus a lot lot more i'll put that link for the the discount in uh in the live chat so five minutes away let's move on to the second biggest thing coming out today so again five minutes time we're going to get all of this non-farm payrolls is the first thing to look at the second thing to look at is average hourly earnings so what's average hourly earnings all about in plain terms average hourly earnings tracks how fast pay packages are growing it sounds like good news when wages rise and for workers it is good news so this is what average hourly earnings are you earning more every hour are your pay packages going up if it goes up of course it's good for you guys but the market reads it differently if wages are growing too fast that will feed through to prices and essentially it's an early inflation reading so an early inflation reading hiding inside the jobs report so essentially if earnings are running too fast like what's happening in japan then you know inflation is going to catch up because if you're earning more you're spending more if you're spending more prices go up inflation goes up so if average hourly earnings is rising too much you're going to look at inflation rising as well with the fed leaning hawkish again it's leaning hawkish we're not talking about rate cuts right now we're talking about rate hikes if with the fed leaning hawkish this number can overrule the payroll headline headline so consensus is about 0.3 on the month every month so when you're looking at this consensus is at 0.3 month every month you don't really need to focus on both the numbers but essentially if you just look at the month every month it's at 0.3 that's what the market's priced in that's what we think is going to occur with the yearly ticking up up to 3.5 and 3.4 wages re-accelerating while inflation already runs before 4 is precisely the mix that gets hikes delivered so if it gets above 0.4 percent month every month not brilliant for rate uh for rates um because they'll have to raise rates because inflation will get out of control if it's cool it's supportive so remember that higher worse lower better and then we also get the unemployment rate uh uh sorry if payrolls and wages disagree wages win uh uh yeah so essentially 160 000 jobs number with a 0.2 wage growth is friendlier for the market than a hundred thousand number and 0.5 percent numbers the fed's problem is inflation not employment and this is the line that yeah so essentially let me just explain that just think about where we are right now inflation is high we're expecting it to come down because oil's come down jobs are very strong so if inflation's high jobs are perfect what are the fed going to do with the fed are worried about inflation if jobs are strong they can cut they can raise rates or keep rates where they are so they're going to do it so right now we're in a situation if you look at the the fed watch tool by the end of december we're expecting at least one rate hike and even the market's pricing in potentially four rate hikes so we're in a situation right now where the fed wants to raise rates why because they can because the jobs jobs market's strong and inflation's pretty high as well so they kind of need to if inflation goes down then there's less of a need to raise rates if the jobs market is weaker then they don't want to raise rates because they don't want to feed into a weak jobs market and cause a recession so what we need today if you're bullish on risk on assets which most people here want their crypto their stocks and things to go up what you want in that situation is average hourly earnings not to feed into inflation so you want it to be pretty pretty at least that consensus or below and you want initial jobless claims sorry sorry non-farm payroll to be weak because if it's weak then then they're not they don't want to cut then they don't want to raise rates if you get both of those things inflation will be coming down and and rates will be coming down or at least the the chance of that so if you're risk going you want payrolls to be at consensus or below and average hourly earnings at consensus or bellow so we want low numbers today low numbers just remember that low numbers is good let's see what happens uh let's have a quick look at unemployment rate so what is it uh it's it's the it's the consensus for unemployment rate the lower is the labor market's tightening the higher is stacks uh slack building faster than the higher rate so uh uh yeah i mean we won't we won't look into that that much because it's not the most important right now so initial jobless games participatory rate and unemployment rate i wouldn't worry about either uh we're really focused on non-farm payroll and also average hourly earnings so it's refreshing now we're going to go over to bloomberg bloomberg are going to give their their thoughts on it as well uh if you want to catch up to the screen uh stream you can always make sure you've got the live button pressed if you've got the live button pressed you'll be live up with me i will have the numbers over here for you guys in about nine seconds time i'll also do my own analysis in the meantime and let's go over to the breaking news now average hourly earnings have come in at consensus initial jobless games there wow wow wow non-farm payrolls at 57 000 we're expecting a pump in the market let's see what happens shaping up as follows your 10-year [01:00:12] Speaker 5: just short of 450 and up two basis points with your jobs report mike mckee has more good morning mike [01:00:19] Speaker 6: good morning john numbers are just starting to come out and it is a disappointment for this uh july 4th holiday weekend 57 000 jobs is the total and we saw last month's 172 000 revised down to 129 000 so a net uh revision of negative 74 over the two months changing private payrolls 49 000 the forecast was for 107 and that was 120 000 the month look at that on gold been revised i told you it's good for gold wow manufacturing payrolls up a week 3 000 but that's what was forecast the average hourly earnings come in at three tenths which bumps up the average early hourly earnings on a year-over-year basis to 3.5 percent still below the level of inflation but it is a move in the right direction i guess you could say average weekly hours 34.3 same as in may and same as forecast the unemployment rate low drops to four point two percent from four point three percent that's about what the fed thinks the uh natural rate of unemployment is so um the overall they're going to look at that instead of the job creation numbers and say that the labor market looks pretty steady participation rate 61 and a half drops from 61.8 we also got one other number today that nobody's going to care about and that is the initial jobless claims they come in at 215 000 down a thousand from last month's revised 216 000 so let me dig into where the jobs were created or not [01:01:56] Speaker 5: and uh we'll see what's happening in the market and mike you take a second look thank you buddy appreciate it downside surprise on payrolls 57k the estimate 113 the previous month downward revision 129 from 172 in the market you can predict what's going to happen here front end of the yield curve two yields come in we drop yields down across the curve twos at the moment down by five basis points to about 413 tens down by a single basis point of 446 we'll get to some of that price action in just a moment that unlocks this move in the equity market equity futures pushing higher by a third of one percent and just off session highs on the s p on the nasdaq 100 a turnaround there up by 0.5 okay let me let me tell you what's going on here then so [01:02:37] Speaker 1: just just a quick look at the numbers uh average hourly earnings came in at consensus so let's ignore that it's that consensus is what the market price and the only thing we can go off is non-farm payrolls at 57 000 so it wasn't super low but it was in that range that we wanted 57 000 57 000 if we had low average hourly earnings then it would have had a bit bit more of a pump um unemployment rate came down a little bit so let's take away from the pump a little bit so it is good if you're in high risk assets to an extent there is less jobs being created so what does that mean what are the numbers we got well we'll go back to bloomberg in a second but let me tell you what's happened so non-farm payrolls came in at 57 000 for june consensus was 110 000 so that's roughly half of what was expected on top of that may was revised from 172 000 to 129 000 so remember that big number i told you about earlier in may that's actually come down 50 000 so that's 43 000 jobs that were previously reported that now have been removed taken together hiring is much weaker than the market believed an hour ago so what we know now compared to what we didn't know about five minutes ago is the market was wrong hiring is weaker than what we fought five minutes ago now we've got the hard data and what now we've got the hard data we can now see what the fed's going to do especially when we put it together with our inflation data so that's the point number one number two is the unemployment rate fell to 4.2 against 4.3 expected that sounds strong but looking at participation it dropped from 61.8 to 61.5 the rate fell because fewer people are looking for work not because few not because more people found jobs and the u6 unemployment also eased from 7.9 to 8.1 average hourly earnings were exactly in line 0.3 on the month and the yearly rate ticked up to 3.5 from 3.4 percent wage growth is still accelerating slowly so the report is soft on jobs but not as soft on pay jobless claims were about 215 000 slightly better than the forecast so let me tell you what this actually means if you are still with us hit the like button i'm going to tell you exactly what this means and i'm going to give you my final thoughts then we're going to do your q a then we're going to go back to bloomberg and uh yeah we might look at crypto as well so please do hit that like button subscribe if you haven't done so already uh please do consider signing up to newsletter it is free if you want the free plan which you get the daily newsletter the daily stories two hours before the opening bell and if you want the full premium plan with the chart training course the trading view indicators the um the the five thousand pound training uh challenge the net worth tracker the sundays with sensei q a sessions chart sessions uh plus a lot lot more which i've probably forgotten uh the link is in the uh pinned in the live chat i'm also going to just chucking in the live chat right now so here we go so what does this mean before this report markets pricing about a 34 chance of a july rate hike a 57 000 payrolls print with a 43 000 downwards revision to may takes most of that away the case for a rate hike rested on a labor market that was holding up and this report says it's not expect rate hike odds to fall and rate cut discussion to return so that's what we were looking for we'll go back to the market see how it's reacting remember i told you let's give it 10 15 minutes and then we'll see where the market really wants to go go gold shot up crypto went up slightly sold off a little bit more well i'm not looking at it right now come back to in a second but yeah we are we are expecting rate hike odds to drop now the usual reaction to that treasury yields fall from uh from 4.48 the dollar weakens that is supported for stocks gold and crypto uh we can expect bitcoin to go up more uh the complication is that wages at 3.5 and rising with inflation above four percent the fed cannot simply pivot to cuts either so this leaves them on a hold rather than easing yeah we need to look at that as well the caveat before anyone calls this a rally signal 57 000 with a falling participation rate is a genuinely a weak report and the next couple prints if the next couple prints look like this one the conversation moves from a rate relief to recession also worth noting fed dailies yeah okay so i'm just looking at some of that data that's coming into me uh plus some of my own thoughts and we'll come back to bloomberg for a second and then i'll give you my final take i think we've got mike mickey back on bloomberg let me just see if we've just so yeah we've got mike mickey here uh let me go to him for a second okay so if you have just tuned in jobs report came out jobs report came out weaker than expected average hourly earnings stayed at consensus essentially what that means if its jobs are weaker the fed don't want to raise rates because that could put the jobs market in danger in fact they might want to reduce rates because they don't want the jobs market to fall into recession so we got the data this is what the data was i'm going to give you some more context in a second this is what the data was let me just show you um average hourly earnings at consensus and then the other big one was non-farm payrolls uh previously is now been revised down from 170 to 129 so less jobs last time around than expected and this time around about 40 about 50 000 jobs less so it was expected 110 we got 57 000 less jobs created uh meaning the labor market is in some sort of danger meaning they don't want to raise rates otherwise that could cause the labor market to go down so in fact if they're not raising rates that could be good for the market uh let's go back to mike mickey let's see if he has any [01:08:22] Speaker 6: other information for us well right now i'm looking at the labor force fell by 720 000 which accounts for the drop in the participation rate that's a big number we had an increase of 83 000 in the month of may employment uh fell by 507 000 in the household survey while unemployment uh felt uh fell by 213 000 so we have a slight decline largely because of the size of the labor force uh falling in the unemployment rate and it looks like on first glance most of the jobs that were created were in the health care and social services categories there is an increase in business services which is the sort of temporary help and that is usually a sign of a kind of a rebound but here's the interesting thing uh we lost like 61 000 jobs in leisure and hospitality uh first you got to figure in the seasonal effects but there was an expectation we might see a big jump because of the world cup but it doesn't seem to have come through in this month [01:09:32] Speaker 5: mike mckee thank you buddy we'll come back to you in a few minutes time as anticipated with a number like that you don't price out a rate hike per se you push it back and that's what we're doing right now with rate pricing pushing it back to december previously we were baking against something around october you look at these numbers expecting a family fight at the end of this month of the federal reserve does that family fight get a little bit less let's say testy at the end of this month with a number like that this does not [01:09:57] Speaker 4: suggest there's urgency to make a move in any which way because ultimately this doesn't necessarily speak to incredible weakness but it also doesn't speak speak to some sort of incredible expansion it kind of goes to what neila richardson was saying which is you saw the may print really highlight the world cup jobs created maybe this is the june report taking them back after the infrastructure was laid uh for the world cup games you look at this it doesn't give you really any clear signal so you're right it doesn't necessarily increase the urgency and takes july pushes it further off the table if you're just tuning [01:10:29] Speaker 5: again again welcome to the program so we got the jobs number just moments ago came at 57k the estimate in our survey was 113 the previous number revised down the unemployment rate for a bunch of reasons we'll spend some time on that dropped back from 4.3 percent to 4.2 with this around the table stephanie roth of wolf research stephanie good morning good morning what would you put waste on this [01:10:49] Speaker 7: morning looking at this report yeah i mean i think the main message from the report is payrolls have been overstated to some extent in the recent prints we're sitting in a labor market that's largely in balance the unemployment rate yes it ticked down but realistically you know the household and the establishment surveys have been telling you slightly different signals it kind of makes sense it tells you the the labor market is fine there's no real concern certainly no urgency for the fed to be hiking and that buys them time the longer that they have to buy time by that point inflation will be slowing down a bit and that will that will probably allow them to stay on hold the chairman used a word to [01:11:21] Speaker 5: describe this particular jobs market he said it was steady would you call it steady this labor market [01:11:27] Speaker 7: i think that's exactly right and i mean we've there's been a lot of volatility in the actual data itself it seemed odd the extent of which payrolls had been running significantly above anyone's estimates of break-evens for many months and you weren't really seeing wages pick up you weren't oh yeah [01:11:42] Speaker 1: this is what this is where bloomberg just comes in and speaks a little bit of um nonsense just to just to make it a bigger deal than it is uh it's very simple guys we've got the data we've got the data now we wait for inflation data what we saw what we're looking at was the fed watch tool this is our most accurate way of thinking what the market is priced in for rate hike because all of this comes back down to firstly is the market going to go up is the risk going to go up is crypto going to go up or is it going to go down um is gold and silver going to go up or down is defense going to go up or down that's that's essentially what we want to figure out and where we are in the cycle are we going to go to raise rates are we going to go to cut rates is a recession coming up is it not that's all we want to figure out and it all comes back down to this data and it all kind of come back to to rate hikes and rate rate cuts we looked at the fed watch tool earlier today before the data came out the market's pricing in in theory one rate hike it could be some of the market's pricing in four rate cuts some of it's pricing in two rate rate hikes uh four rate hikes or four or two rate hikes but by december by the end of this year if you're looking at this chart here there's a 39 chance and again this hasn't refreshed since the data um i don't think it would have let me refresh it but essentially before the data was pricing in a 39 chance of a rate hike by december uh now it's pricing in around a 42 chance we'll wait for that number to to settle down a little bit so i i would expect after this this one data piece again this is just one piece of data what we got was jobs lower than expected if you've got jobs lower than expected if jobs are lower then the mark then then the fed don't have as much room to raise rates the only way the fed can can raise rates or all they want to raise rates or they have the room to raise rates without any consequence is if the jobs market's super strong and they have to because of something like inflation right now the before this report the jobs data was very strong and inflation was pretty high so also there's a small caveat that inflation's heading down so there might be often a reason why they don't need to raise rates too much if for example the war was going on and oil was at 120 then we'll be in a completely different situation where i would be saying they need to raise rates they're going to raise rates this month but the war was pretty much over oil was pretty much down to before war war war time so inflation looks high but that's coming down uh it's still pretty high though so jobs market strong inflation's higher than you want the solution is the fed will come in with raising rates because the jobs market strong it's not going to affect it the inflation slightly high they will come in with a with hiking the rates that brings inflation down it also does damage the jobs market slightly but today we got some information that showed us average hourly earnings inflation is not going to going to go up because of that really that wasn't a surprise towards the upside it wasn't a surprise a downside so we don't have much data from average hourly earnings but the jobs data today showed us actually this is lower than expected the jobs market is might be in danger and maybe we don't want to raise rates yet because if the jobs market is in danger if we raise rates we might be in a situation in a few months from now that the jobs market might be showing us oh we might be going into recession or maybe it's very weak so after today's data we can we can say that the chance of a rate hike has gone down slightly and what they're probably going to do is just keep rates where they are until we get more more more more data and the next data we're going to get and i hope you tune in for it with me is inflation data when is that data i have no idea it's not this week it might be next week because if inflation data is also much lower than expected then forget about rate hikes i don't think there's going to be rate hikes worst case scenario one rate hike but i'm really not this year all i've said is no rate hikes no rate cuts and i think that's going to happen but it depends on inflation because if inflation comes down lower than expected then inflation is it's coming under control jobs are looking a bit scary and you don't want to hike rates they're just going to hold rates where they are if inflation is suddenly much higher and it's not trending down which weeks which i expect it to because of oil then maybe we can still have rate hikes on the cards but the next thing we look at is inflation now when the hell is inflation let's have a look is it next week uh let's have a look at this uh calendar that will tell us uh inflation inflation inflation next week we've got the fmc minutes that will give us a lot of information i'll be live for that uh no inflation dates next week but we've got fmc minutes that's that that will tell us a lot about what the fed were thinking uh under kevin wash uh we'll look at that the week after yeah then it's cpi so on july the 14th we'll have cpi on july the 15th we'll have ppi um and then pc will probably be the week after so yeah we'll wait don't panic this data will come out before the fmc uh do we have any expectations yet no consensus yet on cpi but previously cpi was 4.2 i expect that to come down i expect that to trend down uh it looks like we don't need rate rate hike it looks bullish for the market let's see how the market reacted gold as i said it'll be good for gold if jobs data is lower than expected gold jumped wow wow look at that i mean uh gold jumped two percent on that news two percent in minutes silver jumped probably similar amounts silver jumped i'll come on to your uh comments in a in a second uh silver jumped three percent on that news i expect uh bitcoin would have gone up slightly yeah not as much as you might hope there is a lot of weakness in in in in encrypt at the moment it didn't go down it went up 0.5 ethereum went up slightly xrp went up slightly selling off now let's look at the the s&p 500 the s&p 500 yeah the s&p 500 like the s&p 500 went up 0.34 the nasdaq certainly went up uh oil is is down to levels before the iran war or the us war whatever you want to call it someone got angry at me the other day i said the iran war and they said why do you keep calling it the iran war iran didn't start the war you should call it the us why i said i don't know iran war us or whatever you want to call it before the war um the us uh and bonds are down yeah it says as expected slightly bullish for the market it could have been more bullish if average hourly earnings were lower because that would have indicated inflation was coming lower um slightly bullish for the market let's wait for inflation don't be too too quick to cooperate heights and certainly don't be too quick to cooperate cuts i think we're gonna hold for the rest of the year [01:18:24] Speaker 2: oh my god we've got a super chat martin lucas invested tipped nine dollars and 99 cents through super chat martin's thoughts report rubbish media trying to spin nonsense as you know i'm defensive after freezing the market this year 250 000 now into bills [01:18:43] Speaker 1: uh thank you martin let me read that again uh let me go over here and put it on the screen um i love it we've just got a super chat for martin uh thank you very much uh let me let me go where is it there is uh guys anyone can do a super chat i can't believe martin's done the highest super chat today uh nine dollars 99 if you do a super chat reads it out on the screen i will come to a comment to question in a second but i will prioritize the super chats uh let me see what martin said so martin's thoughts report rubbish media try to spin nonsense as you know i'm defensive after three uh years three oh three xing three xing the market this year 250 000 now in t-bills set top lots on bitcoin see trades and discord yes check out martin's trades on discord uh he's just told he's just done an update there so if you want to join discord the links in the description uh you can join discord and you can see martin's trades uh 3x the market this year 250 000 now in t-bills martin's thoughts report rubbish media trying to spin nonsense am i part of the media that's trying to spin nonsense i don't know maybe i'm part of the nonsense we'll see uh labor market is fine is gas yeah no labor market is is starting to break but if it only breaks a little bit that's good for the market if it breaks a lot obviously that's recession but uh yes slightly bullish on the day after this report uh again we can have the debate are the numbers real are they fake i don't know uh at the end of the day we need to go off what the numbers are in front of us because that's what the market reacts to let me uh let me go through some of these questions if you do have a question please do hit the like button hit the like button first and then post your question in the live chat uh subscribe if you haven't done so already uh and let me just show you again if you want the newsletter these are some of the things you get you get the daily premium briefings and deep dives again if you are investing in the market you need a newsletter you don't need 50 000 newsletters you don't need 50 000 subscriptions uh i used to have about 10 i mean i still do because i look at all the news but i used to have 10 subscriptions to to figure out all the news now i have a subscription so i can relate to you what the most important is because it's 99 is is stuff you don't need to know only one percent is important and that one percent i spend the thousands on news so you don't have to do uh so out of the out of the night out all the news reports only five are important maybe six or seven and we put them into the daily daily briefing so every day two hours before the us opening bell the most important opening bell in the world uh we send out a newsletter five top stories everything you need to know uh and you actually can get most of that for free by signing up the link is in the live chat uh you can sign up for free and then if you want the deep dives the charts of the day then you also get that in the daily report but that's only for the premium members you also get macro event cheat sheets every anytime we have an inflation 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challenge an update coming either today or tomorrow on that uh an xrp update actually a lot of people say how do i buy xrp and how do i get exposure to ripple and xrp well i'll tell you tomorrow uh there's a portfolio tracker and financial control suites absolutely essentially get a net worth tracker there's a private community access on discord one on one dm access uh you get um the sundays with sensei the chart request all of that sort of stuff you will get access to and right now i think there's three people can get it it's a 25 discount off the yearly plan so excuse me you can do that or get the monthly plan you can click on the link or get the free plan but only three people can get the 25 off the link is in the live chat um please do consider it tony young says recommend the newsletter very highly thank you so much i appreciate it uh thank you tony young i appreciate that uh comment let me uh go back to your comments because i want to react to uh your questions as well so if i go to this and then what else do we need to talk about oh yeah we need to talk about mica xrp and then we'll be going over to martin about half an hour for the opening bell so yeah let's see how the market reacts to this jobs news as well uh let me go to this screen it's probably better [01:23:54] Speaker 3: oh i am on that screen uh so [01:24:02] Speaker 1: martin has been wrong for nearly a year now what's going on how spartan been wrong have you seen his portfolio uh i think that's sarcasm uh market says good morning girl i highly recommend the sensor newsletter thank you mark i really do appreciate that that's really kind uh i mean when someone recommends something it's i feel like it's such a great compliment because it's not me saying it's other people uh mark skates thank you very much ricardo says this is fake news trump said there's no inflation and the economy is booming um yeah well there's definitely inflation as songs for space says if oil stops for stops flowing though we are in big trouble temporary supply galt from uh shops coming through yeah i mean i think oil is gonna go back up uh but def i don't unless the oil unless the war restarts and quite an extreme extent i don't i think 120 forget about it for now 100 forget about but there is an argument to be made worth buying some oil i mean we're not everything's not great oil was trending up before this anyway we're at levels before the iran war i mean i think oil will trend slowly back up it'll find the bottom or capitulates but maybe we've already done that and then maybe it's head up slowly nothing too concerning but slowly we're probably just going to be in a situation where inflation is just not going to come back down to two percent for two more years or three more years and we're just and then we're going to have inflation above target for eight years in a row and that will cause its own problems uh if oil stops flowing through we are in big because i think inflation's peaked but i'm not saying inflation is in a good situation i think inflation is going to stay above two percent for a while again remember it was tariffs first then it was the oil shop then it was the tariffs passing through uh what else was there all sorts i've forgotten what's happened over the last and then obviously covered and all of that uh recommend the news that's very highly thank you tony young martin says steve i've been wrong i've i've been beating the market three years in a row what's the audience will now confirm with a yes to reveal that it's troll lying in the chat sensei martin always right back thank you starlight matrix gas expected to stay above four dollars a gallon end of year 105 000 shared everything live to facts sensei facts yes oh good good morning banana head says ricardo's songs today says yes it's a very good financial advice stop saying financial advice there is no financial advice in the newsletter yes answering to martin says silver um again did i miss any other comments let's go non-farm payroll and high on unemployment rate will be awesome yeah it was it was lower on an unemployed employment rate which is why we didn't get a massive boom it was also uh not as low it was at consensus for average hourly earnings but non-farm payroll was enough to move the market up uh dow 60 000 yeah nice down um we had 60 yeah it's it's like all-time highs than 60 000 we had that last week as well uh what is it [01:27:07] Speaker 3: i just never uh [01:27:10] Speaker 1: i never really look at the dow jones yeah so i don't have it for you but what the ticker symbol is dow j i should know that but i don't because i've never invested in the dow jones or looked at the dow jones not to say it's a bad investment but it's not ever been on the top of my list uh xrp is still heading up ethereum's up 3.4 percent silver is uh had its initial boom now selling off i think silver would trend back down to uh it depends if it breaks sixty dollars i think it'll trend down to about 55 and then 50. uh gold at uh that's going to trend down as well yeah you get the initial pump and then and then a sell-off and then a continuation i think so uh the s p 500 might have a little bit of a sell-off and then continue up i mean at the end of the day it is good news for risk on assets so we'll see what happens but not it's not the best news so uh something else comes out then um it can reverse the gains but i would expect the market to uh continue towards the upside today i do have a a lot of stocks i'm looking at bullish gemini now crm adobe uh oh my god adobe that was a good trade i sent this out to all newsletter members 194 dollars now it's at 214 oh my god that's quite good and uh what's that seven days 11 congratulations uh newsletter members alibaba uh smr something we're looking at circle uh you are a yeah i'm gonna put out a trading post i'm gonna put out my views on some of these stocks i've been uh tracking now uh and saying if i'm interested in buying or not again it's not financial advice but some stocks have been tracking uh some certain views as i said if you guys are interested in ripple and xrp uh tomorrow uh let me just say let me just put the xrp on the chat in case anyone comes back later so we're done with the live reports i can turn that off turn that off let's just talk about xrp and me for a second so um i know a lot of people have been asking me about how do i get exposure to xrp how do i get exposure to ripple uh in the stock market especially in the uk market uh let me get an idea is that something you guys are interested in yes or no do you want to know how to get exposure to ripple the stock xrp uh in the stock market yes or no let me just see if we've got the right audience for this to speak about yes or no uh speed says we need more of your trade sensei thank you on the heads up on adobe speed clips no worries oh cool do you do clipping speed clips do you clip people's um content i wanted to i wanted to speak to someone who does that uh speed clips are you are you a member of the newsletter and a clipper i mean this could get very interesting speed clips yes or no let me know um but yeah guys answer the question are you guys interested in how to get exposure to ripple and xrp in the stock market yes or no uh alibaba holding this fantastic buy price yeah we're gonna be looking at that as well in the trading post i subscribe to your census newsletter for his amazing why did he stop saying that i don't do financial advice beginning of third quarter uh yesterday institution will float into energy healthcare and industrial out of chips yeah yeah we've got a healthcare pie in the newsletter let's see if that starts performing uh i'm staying out of oil too much volatility up and down says steven thank you this is uh steven one of uh the biggest oil investors out there uh thank you uh okay so do you guys want to know about how to invest in xrp and ripple in the stock market uh toro uh sorry miss miss drawn says yes torb says no armin says yes ricardo says yes armin says absolutely brett says yes lula says lula ai dream says yes burton says yes torres have confirmed that 250 million dollar investment job before year-end thank you dj haynes i'm sure um bas will will talk about that in his evie toll daily uh luck says yes portman says yes steven i love it the only person says no not for me i love it steven's sticking to what he knows best uh so you guys have said yes interesting so i will do a lot more work on that today then uh i will be releasing then now i've got even more confirmation i thought you guys would but even more confirmation now i'll be releasing tomorrow when the markets are closed ready for the open on monday um an xrp pie uh so if you guys are in the uk you'll be have access to trading 212 pie if you're around the world then you can see the investments anyway and create your own pie on whatever exchange you use um i'll be looking at how to get maximum exposure to ripple and xrp in the current climate because again ripple is very hard to buy but there are ways around it there's ways to get exposure how am i going to do it well you need to be a newsletter member this is only going out to the members yes we give away lots of things for free in the newsletter a lot of the top stories every day and you guys are getting spoiled with the free content but the stuff uh like the xrp pie i'll release tomorrow for the newsletter members a full analysis into the companies that give you exposure to xrp and ripple uh it will be iso friendly again it's not financial advice but if you're in the uk it will be iso friendly because again at the end of the day i am in the uk and i want to do it as well so i'm gonna make it uh iso friendly uh but yeah i'll release it then i've already started working i've spent about two or three weeks already researching it i wonder if i can give you any any yeah i won't give you too much i'll explain the whole thing in the newsletter i'll give you the file i'll give you the stocks and that'll come out tomorrow if you do want it uh then there you go the link 25 off the annual plan you can sign up and you'll get it uh i think it works out to about 12 13 a month if you go for the annual plan i mean the amount of the amount of content you get in the newsletter is ridiculous i know the price might seem high initially uh well everything's relative to some people seem really cheap but it is over a hundred dollars for the year so i guess that is high uh to to to some extent but when you realize how much content you get the amount of perks and especially if you utilize the perks i mean the chart training course that i mean that that in itself is worth five hundred dollars a thousand dollars people pay the trading view indicators that itself is worth 300 the daily newsletter that itself is worth i mean bloomberg charged 300 for their newsletter every day um and again i take my sources from everywhere so you get better than bloomberg uh just themselves just those things are over a thousand dollars so when you work out to be able to be about 13 a month uh then you can really see the amount of uh how much it's worth so you guys if you haven't signed up to premium yet if you're on the monthly you again you might want to sign up to premium if you're a discord member go into discord and unlock sensor.news for the discount there as well uh but yeah okay at least i now know you guys want it so i will give it to you guys uh uh yeah uh so make sure your sensei premium member before it drops tomorrow again if you do join later you can always go into the archive and find it uh thanks for the heads up on adobe no worries uh let's go back and also today i'll be releasing mica mica has just come out in the uk no what do i mean mica has just been released yesterday is the full first day of mica uh the the the final part of mica where the exchanges had to um uh comply and uh it is uh interesting not many uh survived i'll be releasing a full newsletter on that someone someone requests that a newsletter member who was it who requested let me see if they're in the chat now um i was gonna probably do it anyway but when a member requests something i have to do it uh so what did the who was the member let me see if i remember remember uh guys remember if you're a premium member you unlock a certain part on discord so if you're a premium member and you're not seeing the sensei side just open a ticket i'll give you access to your trading view indicators and access to discord [01:35:26] Speaker 3: as well uh so who was it i asked oh chief hillbill chief hillbill are you in the chat uh you enjoy this [01:35:37] Speaker 1: you are asked what's your thoughts on mica yeah so mica i'm gonna give you my full thoughts and actually what it all means uh later today that's gonna come out as a newsletter so you guys keep an eye out for that as well uh so yeah i'll i'll i'll leave i'll leave my thoughts for the one that newsletter comes out uh i just want to let you know you guys know to a little bit of a heads up it is coming out later today the whole meter newsletter oh four five four one brian brian you're gonna look forward to this then uh i've done it for you and probably for everyone else and a little bit for me so i can get up to date with it as well so uh uh where were you where were you where's the chat uh four five four one brian you're you're hillbill so uh yeah that'll come out for you um so uh keep an eye out for that uh when will it come out maybe four or five hours something like that and then tomorrow the xrp sunday with sensei if you guys haven't been tuning into sundays with sensei we start off with an xrp newsletter that comes out if you're a newsletter member you'll get that xrp newsletter xrp show then we'll go over to a private event for discord members and newsletter members and then again newsletter and premium members will get priority with all their comments answered we always allow them to comment in the private discord so uh if we're too busy we'll just focus on the premium members but again everyone is welcome there uh discord members and premium members uh four one five four five four one brian says cheers mate no worries at all uh you're a newsletter member and my job is to provide the best service so we do uh okay so what's the time it is 207 uk time that means in 23 minutes time martin will be live with the opening bell let me see if we've got a live show uh set up let me have a look uh guys if you have any questions throw them in the chat i'm happy to answer them uh we can go back to a market watch as well let me see do we have a martin will be live with the opening bell we'll have another look at the stocks in a second yeah martin will set up a stream shortly so uh if not get that [01:37:51] Speaker 3: okay let's have a look at the market [01:37:56] Speaker 1: xrp now up four percent one dollar now we're up now we're up nearly 10 on our one dollar buy on xrp look at that look at that feel sorry for anyone who didn't buy xrp at dollar even though i think it's probably gonna go lower i mean one dollar is a nice psychological level which you expect to bounce and we're getting that bounce the tune of about 10 percent um congratulations xrp holders ethereum up 3.43 percent not too interesting uh silver coming up to resistance at 61 let's see if if it breaks that then it can get interesting for silver as well but let's see uh bitcoin back above 60 000 if it holds it that can be interesting gold at uh 4 100 no real trade there i mean the last trade was about four thousand dollars as a buy spouty lane i love it sprout berry lane oh god you know uh that's that's that's that's the comment i like let me show you uh spout berry lane says liking the new layout old school ben armstrong ben yeah ben armstrong look love it that's where the inspiration was from actually i can't believe you you you uh noticed it um those were the days weren't they spout very uh yeah every day tuning into uh ben armstrong just looking at the portfolio go up 50 percent then another 20 then 50 percent and yeah it was it was always the thing that was on the 2021 2022 or two i think it was 2021 every day you'd look at your portfolio the market will be up another 20 30 and then it's always ben armstrong with um with his uh yeah this was it was actually the inspiration i did like his layout because you could see where everything was uh so i can't believe you uh you uh you noticed it it's about berry lane liking the new layout old school ben armstrong look yeah there it is that was the inspiration behind i can't believe you've figured that out i wish patel saying bitboy crypto yeah bitboy crypto back when it was bitboy crypto uh before they before they took him down um what's the what's the channel called now uh crypto i mean no one's who's into anymore i mean it's tj isn't it and that that guy's a bit weird uh that's just they just talk a lot of nonsense um uh ben armstrong was at least a little bit funny and he had he had a take what was it what's it [01:40:22] Speaker 3: called now crypto something uh bitboy crypto so we're going off track a little bit now um is bitboy out of jail is he back in jail i don't know uh where is the actual what's it called now crypto no i don't know oh discover crypto does anyone actually watch to see a discover crypto what do [01:40:47] Speaker 1: they actually do have a look uh let me go over to this for a second let's let's just do a little bit of stalking we've got some time to play with martin's not live yet this this cover crypto [01:41:06] Speaker 3: yeah they just yeah they're not let's see it's just tj isn't it look at this um [01:41:15] Speaker 1: there it is yeah they're not doing yeah i don't think their content is actually great i i i looked at a few things it's just it's just a whole bunch of nonsense it's a lot of ai now as well i mean that's why this channel is great we just don't do um we just don't do ai and that's why ben armstrong back in the day was good he would just say what i say as it is now they're just now it's just boring and they just um a lot of ai is in their channel that's that's why they're not doing well they shouldn't have um done that to uh ben armstrong sprout very lane uh rish patel bitboy crypto you need to rant a bit more rant more to the channel the the ben spirit yeah you need to run i need to i need to run boy yeah he did he did he stab his rats he's gone into a mental institution oh god he's gone into a mental institution now i thought he came out is he back in sensor how strong is solana against uh bitcoin xrp how strong is solana let's have a look but it's hard to uh look at solana because remember solana uh bear market lows were ridiculous it's not the same way of looking it because solana was tied up in the whole um ftx situation so it fell to five dollars uh so uh that we can't look at it the same way you have to take into account what happened in the previous bear market so if you looked at it the same way we were looking earlier how strong is xrp and ethereum against bitcoin if you look at the same way you would look at solana and go wow it's so strong it would have to drop 90 to get back to lows uh xrp and um bitcoin and have to drop uh drop 70 uh but solana went down to five dollars because of of the capitulation with ftx and and the fears that it was going to zero like luna uh so that was the issue last time around so it's not the same way you can look at it the only other way you can look at it is solana versus bitcoin oh but then also not look at the last cycle so it's it's hard to say i mean where are you [01:43:19] Speaker 3: from 2024 56 i mean let's look at it from that so march to now solano is down 56 that was march of 2024 [01:43:37] Speaker 1: and it was march 20 24 56 march 20 24 56 march 20 24 [01:43:46] Speaker 3: six uh is that right march 20 24 in that case it's a lot weaker [01:44:11] Speaker 1: yeah i mean it will take me yeah if you're looking at from march 24 it's a lot weaker than um then then xrp it's it's hard to say i would have to sit down and and take a second with the charts but and just do a few overlays but if we just look at this solana we'll find a way solana usd let's just do it the simple way solana usd let's add a chart [01:44:39] Speaker 3: xrp usd and then let's add bitcoin usd we'll just look at it from the highs so solana from its highs [01:44:56] Speaker 1: we just have to look at it a different way because we can't do the same thing looking at the last high so solana's down 72 percent xrp is down [01:45:07] Speaker 3: 72 percent i think bitcoin's down the same [01:45:11] Speaker 1: uh bitcoin's down 50 54 so yeah solana's in line with xrp bitcoin is still king bitcoin's still performing better than all of them um xrp performed better in the bull market than bitcoin hence why it's uh the same distance away from its bear market lows uh so that's one good thing for xrp but in terms of how they performed solana's down the same as xrp but bitcoin's down the least so solana if you're down the same as xrp and not too much more than bitcoin then that's actually a good sign because if you look at any other coin i mean if you just type in let's just look at something like polka dot dot usd of just a random altcoin i can guarantee you it's down more than 76 polka dot it's down from its highs 92 and remember it didn't even go up as a higher um it wasn't very bullish in the bull market either uh these all coins so solana's holding up well xrp is holding up well bitcoin's holding up well and all and in all fairness ethereum's holding up all right outside of that then you would have to pick and choose which ones are performing well or not most of them will probably be down a lot more so solana's holding up pretty well that's why i [01:46:32] Speaker 3: actually don't mind solana i think it's here to stay let's get back to the comments uh yeah [01:46:42] Speaker 1: now they they're not good or funny after kicking bit boy out yeah they're not it's probably in jail or sight words still do we still like mu um i mean i [01:46:55] Speaker 3: i liked mu it was just a hold for me from then on it wasn't really a [01:47:03] Speaker 1: excuse me i felt that one coming for a while um i apologize so uh not polka dot um mu i i've been a believer in don't sell things too early that's why instead of saying sell sell sell i've been like hold and sell a little bit and sell if you're up a lot but you don't want to sell it all and that's worked out pretty well for the last year and a half while everyone else was selling i was saying hold people were selling at 200 100 we bought this at if you look at the trade it was at 64 so if you sold too early and now we're at thousand dollars you wouldn't be too happy so i was more in the camp of hold sell a little bit if you really want to but hold hold hold hold hold hold and that's worked out brilliant now everyone's panic it's down it's down 15 you're up at a thousand dollars from 64 so am i bullish on or not at a thousand dollars it was the first time i said okay take some significant profits a thousand dollars is a psychological level but also if you can you don't need to sell it all because uh you're still above your momentum man the trigger alert might slowly be turning bearish if if we don't recover in the next week next week uh but if we do go down then 700 is is a level that gets interesting but at the end of the day everything comes back to his averages when is it going to come back down i'm not sure if it's going to come back down to his average today we're looking at about 400 so there's always that risk uh at a thousand dollars i said okay maybe it's time to take a significant position out but yeah it's still in an uptrend you don't want to bet against the trend you don't want to sell your winners too early and if you sold this out of five i mean imagine someone took this is where strategies differ some people want to see a one percent pump and a two percent pop and put a lot of money in and and and and take that win some people want to get some big winners uh i'm sort of more in the camp of i want to get some big winners i bought micron at 64 dollars if i wanted a small win i would have sold at 68 dollars or 70 dollars or 75 dollars or 80 dollars or 85 dollars or 97 dollars where that's where the trading post was 97 dollars 100 dollars but no you don't want to let i mean where a thousand dollars that's a 10x from where you you would have sold or 20x from where the initial entry was uh so yeah i mean selling too early is there's two strategies sell after one or two percent and and take the win and just keep consistently winning or get a 20x and i make some serious money i'm in that camp and both are valid [01:49:33] Speaker 3: um [01:49:36] Speaker 1: old days when we used to make money uh old good old days when we made money when we made money used to look where did that speed clip guy go i was speaking directly to where's the speed clip guy i wanted to connect with this person speed clips where have we gone go to channel [01:49:56] Speaker 3: oh you don't even have any content you've just called yourself there you're not even got any content interesting uh let us know your thoughts on solana i like solana uh work break says yes alibaba group holdings and [01:50:14] Speaker 1: netflix at fantastic buy yeah they are going on my list i think i think uh alibaba's already there i've been meaning to add netflix to that list i'm not going to buy them by blindly i'm going to do a [01:50:25] Speaker 3: training post netflix yeah what's netflix at now 74. yeah interesting we'll have a look at it in our trading post that's going to come out uh next week well uh will he be live at the bell or six minutes in after uh martin maybe martin [01:50:55] Speaker 1: kill us no martin we do a countdown before the bell and be live at the bell uh human being liz is asking wait for lower xrp and all spout brain uh liking the old school better from look center howards yeah after that discover crypto he's in a mental hospital oh yeah i didn't realize he's back in i've i've seen uh i think everyone's seen the pictures of ben tolboro now they're not good or funny after kicking bit boy yeah it's not worth not worth it ben is probably in jail slash psych ward still price targets five or ten xlp price targets five or ten yeah five or ten over the next uh five or ten years now i'm joking uh five or ten uh yeah five or ten next ball market 2028 uh mu to 1300 today spousbury lane good old days when we used to make when we made money used to look uh good morning sensei crypto up uh msg are up and how that's how it should be as i say congratulations on your mstr buys uh you're up nicely frankie candles is the man is that yeah i used to be the guy on on bit boy uh this chai analysis wasn't wasn't very good though uh starlight matrix another day another dollar brett said thank you sensei really appreciate that no worries uh how did job support coming good or bad uh so recap if you've just joined for jobs report if you just woke it up in the us and you had a little bit of a lazy morning uh job uh the data came out today i don't have it on the screen i'll just tell you uh essentially we looked at average hourly earnings that came in at consensus so we didn't have to worry about that if that came in lower inflation would be lower that would be better if it came in higher than inflation would be higher and that would be a concern but it came at consensus so completely ignore that move on to the biggest thing which is non-farm payrolls that came in lower than expected about 50 000 lower than expected last time around got revised lower so essentially uh the jobs market slightly cracking and if it's slightly cracking they shouldn't hike rates so essentially that's bullish for the market because there won't there's a lower chance they'll raise rates all we have to do now is look at the inflation data later this month and that'll tell us the real big again this this month's so important for data because we're at this pivot point and we're going to cut rates we're going to raise rates well it looks like the markets would have made the decision that we're going to raise rates i'm not in that camp i've always said 2020 uh 2026 is going to be hold no rate cuts no rate hikes and i still believe that but i need the i need the data the war is pretty much behind us oil and the reason i say that is because oil is is down to very sensible levels uh maybe too low actually so if all was behind us that means inflation including oil is is is peaked um but we need to see exactly what is underlying inflation if underlying inflation is down as well then no rate uh hikes and maybe maybe rate cuts next year so yeah jobs data is bad which is good good news is bad news bad news is good news now we just need to look at inflation inflation is coming out uh later this month so today good news uh does sos unlimited have a chance poor man twitch man i have no idea what that is if that's a crypto it doesn't sound too good at all okay just by the name of it kurt services bless you thank you how about is that sandisk uh sandisk yeah a little bit less sort of bullish on compared to me i would i would be uh trimming out uh hello guys what about vertical uh i'll let vas discuss vertical or join join us with sundays with sensei when we look at all the chart requests ben loves love of card on a pair speed clips hello i forgot in oh i got into training instead of clipping videos it didn't really interest me uh at all when i got started my name in discord is trading state of mind all right trading state of it yeah i was wondering i clicked to your channel you weren't you didn't have any clips uh no worries uh i mean remember you need to make money to then invest in the stock market uh you don't want to use the stock market as a way to make money so um um i know a lot of people make a lot of money clipping uh random clip says when when's the next bull market uh it's hard to say i'd have to do a newsletter report if i go off the four-year cycle where the bear market year now the bear market lows then the next year is the year of sort of slowly going up accumulation when it's bitcoin harvling 2028 uh btc halvening or 2027 i think 2027 right [01:55:36] Speaker 3: oh no april 2028 uh so yeah the big bull market year will essentially be in 2028 and 2029 so um [01:55:45] Speaker 1: 2027 yeah you normally get a a nice run up into the into the into the into um the halvening start between 2027 uh 2026 is the bear market year 2027 is the year you slightly go up and then 2028 [01:56:00] Speaker 3: should be the bull market year um oh martin is in the chat let me what uh oh we've got a link from martin let me click on that [01:56:26] Speaker 1: martin will be live on the bell so um we'll go straight to martin are you doing a countdown or should i cover the opening uh will you have a countdown on your show or not can you just let me know please if you if you're going to have a countdown then i'll cover the open and then send to you halfway through your countdown um just let me know if you're going to have a countdown or not when's the next bull market for that answer your question mu to 1300 will certainly can just won't take much uh what do you think about pump fun uh don't have many thoughts on it uh spartan wolf says what's your recent thoughts on flare and where i might go we're gonna go down and down and down until we we we um we have the we have the final capitulation human being liz says five minutes to the bell thank you my favorite bit more moment was when bits ben dot eve scammed him into buying who is this new guy are you talking about me i'm said say uh you've been about you've been a member for two months if you've been on the channel you've definitely know who i am uh when what about mr yeah if you don't know who i am i'm sensei i've been on the channel about number four years talk about crypto talk about stocks i run the newsletter on the show uh i work with martin and uh [01:57:38] Speaker 3: um uh then uh yeah uh yeah that's that's who i am i'm sure there's many people who don't know who i [01:57:48] Speaker 1: am so hopefully i'll explain that wash will manipulate the target by changing the way he uses data to make the target allowing him to eventually over interest rates without looking like he's trump uh yeah he's gonna change the way he's gonna change a few things but he can't do it overnight um and he can't blow interest rates all by himself um either he does have a good influence but he can't do it [01:58:08] Speaker 6: all by himself oh wow look at this leave this [01:58:15] Speaker 1: look at this we have got five memberships being given away please do hit the like button comment see if you can win a membership and please do thank 1978 buckley for the membership uh let me uh do this market opening um i can't believe this guys uh you can win memberships right now 1978 buckley's giving them away please do thank her and um try and win them all we have to do is interact with the show [01:58:49] Speaker 3: uh i'm just going to change the headline now because we're covering the market open market [01:58:56] Speaker 1: i can't believe this all right one minute to go until the market open we've just updated the the screen so you can see exactly when it opens uh only 49 seconds thoughts on now i do have big thoughts and now it's going to be in the trading post j is king if you want to see um the trading uh the trading post coming out it's on the you have to be a sensei premium member the link is in the live chat click on that now you get 25 discount i can't believe this my thoughts are on now uh thanks for the membership my strategy 50 at some point uh maybe if we have a big capitulation if something goes really wrong thank you you're welcome thanks thanks thanks what we're saying thanks for oh the membership the membership yes say thank you so what do you think is going to pump uh specifically asking for martin uh oh you're asking martin martin will be live soon did i get one leave this you'd go green if you got one even if clouds gets passed on the senate floor okay we're gonna go over to the market open [01:59:51] Speaker 8: here we go market open people are living together and seemingly let's go through our top stocks the market [02:00:09] Speaker 1: has just opened market has opened let me know if the music's too loud and i'll turn it down but here we go what do we have we've got xrp up four percent to be fair xrp doesn't have a market open but it's up four percent it's our biggest gain on our watch list silver up three percent bitcoin up two percent gold up two percent the footsie up 1.2 percent the nasdaq opening up the s p 500 opening up 0.21 bonds down slightly oil down let's go through some stocks as well coinbase up a bit too much i'm gonna buy this very i'm gonna buy this this week but uh you might wait coinbase up five percent microstrategy up six percent snapchat flat robin hood up five percent i told you the reason why in the newsletter they've launched their tokenization and their price targets have gone up rivian up six percent let me see uh yeah the phoenix song is on circle up five percent palantir up three point nine percent gamestop pretty flat dollar tree up three percent vertical aerospace up three percent uh bitcoin etf up two point seven percent till rate up two point three percent arch aviation up one point six percent rocket lab up one point two percent lift up one point eight percent fizer up one point three percent smci up four percent amazon up one percent netflix up one point seven percent debt up two point two percent virgin galactic is flat essentially sound hound ai up one point five percent fiver up one point one nine percent uh paypal up two percent uh paypal is also looking interesting emerson electric up uh pretty flat apple up one point seven percent recovering off their awful uh uh price increases uh arc invest up one point five five percent innovation etf you'll say it's not all-time high they're trending up quite nicely uh berkshire halfway pretty flat tesla waiting for deliveries if you're invested in tesla you'll be waiting for their delivery numbers that's coming out later today uh whilst we have wrap technologies is up big they had a good day yesterday up 14 yesterday wrapped at one dollar fifty microsoft uh flat s p up moving 0.42 percent coca-cola up 0.53 percent today congratulations coca-cola holders enphase flat nvidia flat planer flat luna flat jnj up 4.4 percent uh 4.63 percent uh it looks like the s p is pretty flat as well uh mcdonald's up one percent russell 2000 up to uh 0.5 percent google flat disney flat dollar flat my battery for my light flat uh joebie flat i was flat for a second i don't know what happened joebie uh down slightly vivo power down slightly uh dydx pretty flat amc flat alibaba down one percent nasdaq looks to be down now uh mobix uh flats amd down uh 1.8 and tsm up one percent that's our watch list uh let me know if i missed anything uh we did miss some of the other ones circle up eight percent bullish up six percent gemini up three percent annibaba went down one percent uh netflix up two percent now adobe up three percent as well this is looking good uh anyway those are some of our top positions thank you for joining me for the market open that was the the stock market open of thursday the second of july you watched uh me ring the bell play the phoenix song for the first time and and probably a year i played that phoenix song uh i felt like it was a special occasion not sure why but i did uh rang the bell uh let me know what were you guys looking at today we opened the stock market with me today how did that feel guys did you like it did you not let me know uh why is m phase dropping on today's news this would be slightly bullish now yeah slightly bullish but again there might there must be something going on with end phase itself i haven't looked into it uh the nikki is up or the nikai is up going to work out have a blessed day and weekend everyone high energy investments uh keep up the good work fitness is very important i should get into workouts as well uh opening of sensei today nice thank you petra yeah it was good fun we're gonna go over to martin now he's live um on the bell so uh let me click on that uh martin will be live uh in a second so uh you do 10 minutes in uh okay i will uh send some art in in in a few uh minutes time okay so uh we did the market watch again ethereum is pumping let's have [02:05:21] Speaker 3: another look at the markets uh just speaking to martin behind the scenes martin is uh going live [02:05:42] Speaker 1: okay so yeah we've covered the market open let's just see what's moving and remember things move very fast in the market open so what i've just read out could be completely different now yeah microstrategy leading the day with an eight percent move up up to 101 if you're wondering why microstrategy is moving up then why aren't you reading the morning newsletter guys the morning newsletter has been improved i spend more time on it uh actually some parts are now easier for me to do with ai automation meaning i can spend time on the parts that matter more so my my insights the stories i choose um uh again none of us it's all my thoughts all the real news stories uh but because i can spend more time doing it it's it's a new feel so if you guys haven't read the newsletter or you've stopped reading the newsletter get back into it it's literally all the information it's always improved i looked at a newsletter we did a year ago and the improvements just in the daily newsletter are crazy as well so if you haven't uh got into it get back into it uh make sure when you get the email it's in your primary inbox go and search for the email go type in sense in your inbox find it swipe over put in your primary inbox there's all these ai um mailboxes now that are getting rid of newsletters find it put into primary inbox and at least click on it every day because then you get to see the top stories at a glance even if you don't read the whole newsletter even if you're a free member you get to see what's going on uh but yeah uh when we scroll down a little bit you've got the top movers so microstrategy the biggest gainer today is also in the winners and losers microstrategy is up today because of the new unveiling a new digital credit capital framework that authorizes up to two billion remember two billion dollars is how much they need to sell to their bitcoin situation in common and preferred stock buybacks establishing a a formal cash reserve policy and it lifts its strc preferred dividend to 12 percent with city reaffirming a buy rating on the overhaul the revamped capital plan has driven a sharp bounce off last week's low so they've figured a way to stay in the game and quite clever way as well so they're up robin hood's up that's the second biggest gainer today and why is that up uh uh it's up because uh rising after launching the public mainlet of robin hood chain it's an ai native ethereum layer 2 network built for tokenized stock trading alongside a run of analyst price target increases that include a fresher raise from deutsche bank so deutsche bank has increased its its rating and also they've launched their tokenized on the ethereum blockchain balance is also up and then franklin convoy is the biggest loser so again you can just go to top movies to see what's moving and why it's moving some of the top stories today is meta a big story from meta so uh if i read you the one big thing it also covers it so meta announcing it will sell its spare ai computing power and that's added 172 billion to its market value in a day the same session the companies the same session the companies that build and rent computing power fell hard nebius lost almost 12 percent four week around 10 nvidia about two percent that is the message hiding in both moves so when the biggest ai spenders matter start renting out excess capacity it started doing that yesterday computing power stops being scarce everyone wants computer power everyone's trying to get as much computing power as possible it looks like meta have a spare computer power they're renting it out it's now a commodity uh and the profit shifts from the companies that are selling the shovels nvidia etc etc to platforms that already own them if you own them you can rent it out and make some money watch rental prices especially as cloud firms soften if it softens the ai capex boom has finally found its ceiling maybe they don't need to spend as much on ai which is kind of bullish as well but maybe not as bullish for the people selling the shovels um so very interesting story from meta and again it bounced up yesterday maybe it's down slightly today uh but very very interesting story about meta turning its ai bill into a cloud business and again a lot of other interesting stories tesla's numbers of interesting tesla uh bitcoins bounce uh some of the other stories today ripple joining a a big stable coin open usd we're gonna have more on that on sundays with sensei and then deep dive uh we give you all the whole pdf to download for the jobs data so do sign up to newsletter the link is in the live chat if you haven't done it already now we're gonna go over to um now we're gonna go uh over to martin he'll be live uh so we will uh let me just check your comments ring that bell phoenix song yes phoenix song nice opening of sense today nice uh let me see that we had a poll running and it closed let me see what the results were does the fed actually hike in 2026 no they hold all year 35 of you are in are saying the same as me hold all year let's see the it's slightly against us the market really thinks there's going to be a hike but we'll see uh yes later this year 30 that there is a good chance that we get one rate hike not many uh yes this month i don't think so but the market seems to suggest a 30 chance of that happening let's see what the inflation data is no they end up cutting this year i don't think they'll cut this year i [02:10:48] Speaker 3: think that's very unlikely so the poll has ended uh let me see if i can run another one my computer seems to be lagging should the wreck first show return this is let's just let's just ask the question yes no like the show with and say in brackets me because it seems like some people [02:11:22] Speaker 1: don't know who i am but one person pretended he didn't um just a quick poll before we go over to martin quick quick quick vote vote we need to go over to martin he is live with the opening bell show should the breakfast show return of sensei me return i'm sensei by the way uh i just voted yes you can vote no just please just be honest be completely honest do you want it will you actually watch it are you live are you awake that early let me know does it matter if it doesn't mean anything to you just put no if you're not awake and you're not going to watch it then just put no but if you are gonna watch it if you want it to return just just not promising anything just just want to just want to see what you guys are saying yes or no and if you enjoyed the show today let me know nike in corporate he's having a breakout uh that'll be interesting nike was a really good uh level last week uh guys please do hit your like the like button on the way out please do subscribe stay uh stay exactly where you are i'll be sending you over to martin he's live with the the opening bell so stay exactly where you are i'll send you directly to martin i'll give you the link as well um thank you everyone for tuning in do you remember tomorrow with the xrp ripple newsletter that will be newsletter members only premium members only the link the 25 discount on the annual plan is there if you want the other discount go to discord if you're on the monthly plan due for a renewal maybe go check out the annual plan oh my god look at this [02:12:53] Speaker 2: at martin lucas investor tipped 100 through super chat yes bring sensei back every bloody day lazy [02:13:02] Speaker 1: what the hell we've got a hundred dollar super chat for martin look at that when was the last time we got a hundred dollar super chat this is incredible okay five a hundred dollars super chats right now i'll be back every morning guys that's incredible thank you very much about it let's see what the poll says [02:13:29] Speaker 8: people are living together in seemingly perfect harmony until one day a young man catches fire this it's phoenix [02:13:42] Speaker 1: even being liz says yes yes yes let me turn up the volume on phoenix nick jones says yes yes yes yes thanks for you dude thank you absolutely love it thanks i absolutely love it everyone spam the chat do it now jump on this now no choice now center yeah there's not really a choice everyone should chat one dollar maybe maybe that'll do it everyone should chat a hundred dollars maybe yes yes obviously please i don't know maybe you guys don't want it i don't know vote in the poll vote in the poll do you want the breakfast show to return two hours before the opening bell an hour and a half before the opening bell let me know do you want me to go live in the mornings uh if you do a hundred dollar super chats i'll definitely be back if you do one dollar super chats i think i'll be back let's see let's see what you guys do vote in the poll as well and then we'll go over to martin um uh live next we're celebrating the biggest super chat of the day with martin at a hundred dollars thank you [02:15:22] Speaker 9: a third stand inside you transform light up in a flash you spread your wings to rise from the ashes to rise from the ashes you sure you're a phoenix [02:16:08] Speaker 1: 1978 buckley says come on super chat thank you 1978 buckley you've already done membership number super chat thank you very much [02:16:28] Speaker 9: phoenix you burst in a fire burn but there's 284 people watching and we and we've only got 60 votes guys please do vote in the poll [02:16:46] Speaker 1: i'm about to end it i'm sure those are the same people that haven't hit the like button so please do hit the like button [02:17:02] Speaker ?: uh [02:17:24] Speaker 1: okay so let me close the poll thank you guys for the super chats uh thank you martin thank you 978 buckley we'll see we'll see what we did let's get it done let's see what happens sign sign the xr answers back and so literally told you i would sign the mug for you well didn't i i i remember having a question oh on the discord application process i think uh speed clip says yeah god damn it high sensor lmt from the other day entry 505 i know you don't trade war stuff anyways give me thank you uh i'm happy you know that uh i don't i don't have any thoughts on it if you join with sundays with sensei then we'll look at the chart since they need to you need a bell to ring and yes come back i wouldn't be ringing the bell savage [02:18:04] Speaker 2: tip two australian dollars through super chat sensei you need a bell to ring and yes come back [02:18:10] Speaker 1: thank you very much thank you for the super chat oh i don't think i'll do the bell because i won't be like the open bell but maybe i should just get a bell anyway i did have a really terrible bell that you guys laughed at last year i think i threw it away anyway let me end the show let me send to martin let me end the poll uh last chance to vote in the poll uh let me end the poll oh wow i've never seen anything like it uh 70 votes should the breakfast show with sensei me return 96 of people said yes 96 that's i don't think i've ever seen i think i've ever seen a number like that and i even made it very clear to vote no if you're not going to watch it uh so um at least i know i'll have about 68 people watching me at least we'll see we'll see i'll let you guys know i'm doing some lots of updates in the background of the newsletter so maybe the next next next week week after we'll see i'll speak to martin we'll see what we can do uh thank you everyone for tuning in let's go over to martin the live on the bell if you haven't signed up to newsletter please do uh tomorrow with the ripple uh pie is being released uh sundays with sensei is coming this sunday long weekend uh but tomorrow i'm going to be released uh today i'm going to be releasing the mika uh newsletter as well so everything you need to know about the new uh about the new uh laws okay so there's the link to martin's show i'm going to end the show now if you stay exactly where you are you'll go directly over to master thank you as uh as always take care of yourselves and each other. Bye-bye.