Winning one key state would give Dems a 96% chance of taking Senate

[0:00] I'm here with Harry Anton at The Magic Wall. [0:01] Harry, it's worth saying that, you know, [0:03] the president says what he says about the polls. [0:05] Sure. [0:05] Mike Johnson says what he says. [0:07] Sure. [0:07] But they have their own internal way of looking at the situation. [0:10] And on that, they base their actions. [0:12] And their actions are where they are spending money and time, [0:14] and they are doing all of that in states that they shouldn't have to. [0:17] I would agree with that. [0:17] So I just think it's worth saying that, [0:19] but as there's this, you know, sowing of conspiracy theories. [0:23] So when you talk about the polls, [0:25] there's a new one in the South Carolina Senate. [0:27] Yes. [0:27] That has just come out that even, I mean, [0:31] the most seasoned people are shocked because this race, [0:34] if Lindsey Graham were in the seat, [0:37] we wouldn't be talking about South Carolina. [0:40] So what would it look like if Democrats pulled this out? [0:42] Yeah, what would it look like? [0:43] I mean, my goodness gracious, [0:45] this one is an earth-shattering earthquake [0:48] in terms of if Democrats were able to win [0:51] in the great state of South Carolina. [0:53] I mean, just take a look here. [0:54] Annie Andrews, the Democrat that's running a Dem win [0:56] in South Carolina would give Democrats about a 96% chance [1:01] of winning the United States Senate. [1:04] I mean, they'd be basically all the way there. [1:06] Why is that? [1:07] Well, we're going to go in to the great Senate map here, [1:10] and let's just say that we turn South Carolina blue, okay? [1:13] That gets from Democrats from 47 to 48. [1:15] Then they can go up to Maine and win a state like Maine. [1:18] That Kamala Harris, of course, won back in 2024. [1:20] That gets into 49. [1:21] Why don't we give Democrats Michigan, [1:23] which, of course, Joe Biden won back in 2020 [1:26] and has not elected Republican senators [1:28] since Spencer Abraham all the way back in 1994. [1:31] And then we'll give them Ohio as well. [1:33] Sherrod Brown, of course, the longtime senator, [1:35] lost in 2024, but the polling looks pretty good [1:37] for him this year. [1:38] And all of a sudden, you get to 51 seats. [1:41] You've done it. [1:41] You don't have to win in Texas. [1:42] You don't have to win in Kansas. [1:44] You don't have to win in Iowa. [1:44] And you don't have to win in Alaska. [1:46] By South Carolina going blue, [1:48] it makes the map so much easier for Democrats. [1:51] Okay, so you talk about what is it in South Carolina [1:53] a Democrat hasn't won, you said, 28 years, right? [1:54] They have not won a South Carolina Senate race [1:57] since 1998, Fritz Hollings. [1:59] And then this one, I'm not going to go like Jake Tapper [2:02] who sometimes went and touched John King's wall. [2:03] You're allowed to hit it. [2:04] I'm not going to touch it. [2:05] You can do it. [2:05] I'm not going to touch it. [2:06] But that state there hasn't elected a Democrat in, what, [2:11] 10 years more than South Carolina? [2:12] Yeah, so let's... [2:13] Texas. [2:14] That's exactly right. [2:15] So let's say that we turn South Carolina back into yellow, [2:18] back into a toss-up. [2:19] If, in fact, then we turn Texas blue, [2:22] that can also work. [2:23] Getting you to 51 Senate seats [2:24] with these other seats that are on the board. [2:26] And I will note that right now, [2:29] James Tallarico is polling historically well [2:31] for a Democrat in the great state of Texas, right? [2:34] Lloyd Benson was the last Democrat [2:35] to win it there back in 1988. [2:38] Just look at this. [2:39] Just look at this. [2:40] The late October Texas Senate polling [2:42] where the Democrats are. [2:43] Look, right now, James Tallarico's up by three. [2:46] You go back to 2018. [2:47] Beto. [2:47] Beto O'Rourke was down by five points. [2:50] What we're seeing right now [2:51] is James Tallarico's polling better [2:52] than any Democrat has this late in the campaign [2:54] since Lloyd Benson for United States Senate [2:57] all the way back in 1988. [2:58] By the way, I'll just point out [2:59] when people criticize the polls, [3:00] Beto did better than that on Election Day. [3:02] That's exactly right. [3:03] He did better than that. [3:03] He only lost by two and a half. [3:04] That's exactly right. [3:05] So that was actually twice as bad as he did. [3:08] All right, tell me something I don't know. [3:09] Okay, I will tell you something [3:10] that you don't know, Erin Burnett, [3:11] which is you talk about polling errors, right? [3:13] And you talk about polls underestimating Republicans. [3:16] Well, take a look here. [3:17] Which party beat poll expectations? [3:19] We're looking at close Senate races since 1998. [3:22] The Democrats have actually outperformed their polls [3:25] more frequently than Republicans have over the long term. [3:28] And they've also did so back [3:30] in the 2022 midterm elections as well. [3:33] Which is really important [3:34] because we all tend to remember, right, [3:35] some of those polling misses with Trump, right, [3:37] it's important to look over time and perspective [3:39] where do the errors happen? [3:40] That's exactly right, Erin Burnett. [3:42] In these final days until the midterms, [3:43] Democrats have a new reason to be optimistic [3:45] and Republican anxiety has another reason to swell. [3:48] New polling out today finds a dead tie [3:50] in the race for South Carolina Senate, [3:52] widening the Dems' possible path [3:54] to win control of the chamber. [3:56] Further reflecting the GOP's jitters, [3:58] a pro-Trump super PAC just made a big last minute buy [4:00] for ad time in the Palmetto State, [4:03] adding to the avalanche of cash [4:05] that's already poured in. [4:06] With less than a week to go, [4:07] Republicans are right to worry. [4:09] Recent polling suggests that Trump's approval [4:11] has plunged to 34%. [4:13] The majority of Americans think [4:14] that the country is on the wrong track. [4:16] And 60% say that the cost of living [4:18] is the most important economic issue. [4:20] Nothing else even comes close. [4:22] Leanne, Trump's approval, [4:24] if I put him in the high 30s and I'm being generous, [4:26] is about where W stood in 06. [4:28] That's when Republicans lost 31. [4:31] This time Republicans can only afford to lose three. [4:34] Yeah, that's absolutely right. [4:36] Also in 2006, no Democrat incumbent lost that election either, [4:42] House, Senate, or governors. [4:43] I don't think that's going to be the case this time [4:45] because of redistricting, [4:46] but it is a really interesting anecdote. [4:50] When it comes to South Carolina, [4:52] back in August, I interviewed Annie Andrews. [4:56] I was down in the state. [4:57] It was before the runoff with Darlene Graham. [4:59] And I was talking to the National Democrats about it. [5:03] And they were kind of dismissing this race at the time. [5:06] They said, no, there's no money that's going to go in right now. [5:09] We have no plans to. [5:10] It's not even the top of the stretch of the races. [5:14] And, you know, I talked to the DSCC this week [5:16] and they said, well, Leanne, you were right. [5:19] We are obviously putting money in. [5:21] There's a lot of money in on both sides. [5:23] And the fact that South Carolina is actually in play, [5:27] this New York Times polling today showing the race tide [5:31] is exactly what the internals are showing as well. [5:35] And the Democrats I talked to actually cannot believe [5:37] that the race is this close [5:39] and that they are possible that they could win in South Carolina. [5:41] That New York Times is everywhere tonight. [5:42] But anyway, what I want to say on top of that [5:44] is what we forget about South Carolina. [5:46] And that is Lindsey Graham, God rest his soul, [5:50] when he ran himself for a primary, [5:52] we forget that there was 40% of the Republican primary electorate [5:55] who voted for somebody else. [5:57] That does not mean, and I am not a stupid Democrat, [5:59] no matter what none of y'all say, [6:01] think that all them Republicans is going to run over [6:03] and vote for a Democrat. [6:04] I don't think that. [6:04] But in the atmosphere that we're living in, [6:06] you have a portion of those people who are just mad, [6:09] who wouldn't vote for Lindsey Graham, [6:10] who I don't think are going to vote for his sister. [6:12] So I want to bring two things together. [6:14] So I also worked on Jamie Harrison's Senate race [6:16] in South Carolina. [6:17] Ooh, we spent some money there. [6:19] We sure did. [6:19] But similarly, what we saw in the polls, [6:23] the people were sick of Lindsey Graham. [6:25] We heard things in focus groups like, [6:27] all he wants to do is be on television. [6:29] He's never here. [6:30] So again, he was already problematic. [6:35] Then if you look at what's happening, [6:38] I mean, Annie Andrews is actually winning non-voters [6:42] from 2024, new voters from some of the folks [6:45] who were first-time voters in 2024. [6:46] She's actually peeling off a slice of the Trump coalition. [6:52] And having been the DNC communications director in 2006, [6:55] when we did so well, I was with the folks who said, [7:00] I even asked friends of mine in South Carolina, [7:01] and they were like, no way, no way. [7:03] But this is the kind of environment [7:05] that we started to see in 2006 [7:07] where things were popping all over the country [7:10] that you couldn't have anticipated [7:12] as the president's numbers continued to go down [7:16] and the economy continued to worsen for people [7:18] because it's the only way in a midterm [7:20] they can express how angry they are. [7:22] I was being generous to the president [7:23] when I put him on an equal playing surface [7:26] with W's number. [7:27] I could have referenced Harry Truman [7:28] and said that Truman was at 33, [7:30] and by one poll, Trump is at 33, [7:32] which is a hell of a lot worse. [7:33] Caroline, normally our presidents get a wartime bump. [7:37] Hasn't happened this time for President Trump. [7:39] Initially, at least, there's a bump. [7:40] Sometimes that takes a turn. [7:43] Iran is at the root of a lot of this, no? [7:46] But I don't think it's going to be a factor in South Carolina. [7:49] I think South Carolina is not going to elect a senator [7:52] who believes that men should play in women's sports [7:54] and that it's okay to chop off children's genitalia. [7:57] That is not something that South Carolina is going to vote for, [8:01] and those are positions that Annie Andrews holds [8:02] and publicly stands by. [8:04] Now, I will say Vivek Ramaswamy took a lot of criticism this week [8:09] for an ad that he put out about Amy Acton's mother, [8:12] but the hypocrisy I saw was that the progressive left, [8:15] the Young Turks, political media organization, [8:17] masquerading really as a super PAC, [8:19] put out an ad essentially outing a dead senator, [8:24] an ad featuring alleged male escorts who had been with Lindsey Graham. [8:31] And I don't think South Carolina, with their tact, [8:34] is going to go for such a disgraceful political stunt. [8:38] I mean, have they no morals? Have they no bounds? [8:41] I thought it was not okay to out anybody in this country, [8:44] let alone somebody who's dead. [8:46] And they've done that as a political trick, political smear, [8:48] because apparently that's what Democrats are into this week, [8:50] because I don't think they think they can win. [8:52] I watched it. [8:52] I wish I had those 30 minutes of my life back, [8:55] but I don't think that that was a campaign commercial. [8:57] I don't think it's okay to out anybody, [9:00] and I definitely don't think it's okay to out somebody who's dead. [9:03] Okay, I'm just making a separate... [9:04] Maybe that's why I'm a little more progressive than the progressive left. [9:06] I'm just making a separate point, [9:07] which is to say that there are commercials, [9:09] you know, commercials that are professionally produced [9:11] and put out by campaigns and paid for, [9:13] and then in the world in which we live, [9:14] somebody can put out video like the banana commercial in Michigan, [9:18] and all of a sudden everybody treats it like it's the real thing when it's not. [9:20] I'm just talking about morality, and that's where my moral line is. [9:23] So, Michael, the last time a Democrat... [9:25] I'm sorry, can I just correct you for one second? [9:27] Annie Andrews has been very clear on the record. [9:29] She does not support gender-affirming care for people under 18. [9:32] I just wanted to make sure we're being accurate. [9:34] Go ahead, sure, Michael. [9:35] I was simply going to say the last time a Democrat won statewide, Senate 1998. [9:41] It's been a long time. [9:42] And when I look at the fundamentals, [9:43] and the president has been to South Carolina, [9:45] I think, two or three times now, spending more money there. [9:48] It is a close race within the margin of error. [9:50] I will acknowledge that. [9:51] I think it ultimately comes down to turnout. [9:53] You have Republicans, you have independents. [9:56] I do worry about our ability to maximize those right-leaning independents, [10:01] turning them out. [10:01] They're not happy. [10:02] I get it. [10:03] But I think when you draw the contrast to the opposition, [10:06] my hope is with the proper messaging, [10:08] we can turn those individuals out. [10:09] If we do, I think we win the race by two points. [10:11] I just would circle back and say, I don't think this cycle, the trans card, if you will, [10:16] is working the way it has in the past. [10:18] And I'm shocked this is going to floor you, [10:20] that that's not a conservative issue to own a live and let live mentality. [10:25] And, like, why are we beating up on that community continually? [10:29] Oh, because it's about protecting children. [10:30] And I'm sure it would be a shock for many people at this table to know that that is still an 80-20 issue. [10:35] So I think we should all leave New York City and go talk to the American people where you will find it is an 80-20 issue. [10:40] I don't deny that, but that doesn't make it right. [10:42] Let's look at some of the specifics, Tamara, of where the electorate is in South Carolina, [10:48] because we think of it as a red state, and it is a red state. [10:50] But if you look at this pie chart that we're putting up here, 38 percent of those at least asked in this poll say they're a Republican. [11:02] 30 percent are independent. [11:05] So if she has any chance of winning, I mean, this doesn't, this math doesn't math without getting some of the Republican votes. [11:14] Right. And I think that this race is fascinating because South Carolina Republicans didn't universally love Lindsey Graham, her late brother. [11:26] In fact, many South Carolina Republicans were suspicious of Lindsey Graham, didn't love all of his policy. [11:32] Some of them didn't love his foreign policy. [11:35] And then they are essentially told, here is your new senator. [11:40] Support her. President Trump says you have to support her. [11:43] There was a runoff. [11:45] It was actually a pretty contested primary, more contested than I think the president wanted. [11:51] And so on the Republican side, that's where the drama is in this race. [11:55] On the Democratic side, Democrats have consolidated. [12:00] The Democratic candidate has been fundraising forever and has a very solid campaign. [12:08] In the end, South Carolina is still South Carolina. [12:10] Yeah. And so I'm, you know, we will just have to see what kind of night it is. [12:16] But the fact that the president keeps going there is an indication that they are worried. [12:21] And I think, you know, he had to pull Darlene Graham over the finish line. [12:25] Yeah, he has a lot on the line with her. [12:27] But let me just, just to back up what you're saying here, the, each party seems to be, for the most part, coming up more Democrats. [12:34] If you see here, 96% of Democrats say they're going for Andy Andrews, 92% of Republicans, 7% look small. [12:42] But if it's razor thin, that's not so small. [12:44] But it is this number, 57% of independents. [12:48] Remember, it's a third of the electorate, according to this poll, that are independents. [12:54] That's the warning sign for Darlene Graham. [12:57] Absolutely. [12:57] I think there's also, though, what is a huge focus, I know, for the president's political operation is the people sitting home. [13:05] If not, Republicans are not showing up, perhaps you do see the overflow of enthusiasm from Democrats also being able to bring Andy Andrews over the line. [13:14] And the tough thing about South Carolina, why we're going to see the president back there tomorrow, he's going to be in Rock Hill, is because she, Darlene Graham is truly a Trump, a Trump candidate. [13:25] She wouldn't be in this place without his endorsement. [13:28] She's not a great candidate. [13:29] And so he has a lot on the line for her as well. [13:32] He has done so much to make sure that she is the person who is on the ballot. [13:36] And if she fails, I know that more than some of these other races, the president feels like he will look like a failure there.