Core Inflation Report LIVE PCE LIVE DATA - Martyn Lucas Investor

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: inflation report are you about to lose it all or is the market about to rally in exactly one minute from now we're going to bring you the pce data the inflation report everything that you need now i'm ready with a huge trade in play i haven't yet made any moves i've just set my thought process of what i'll be doing that was all shared on my discord and electrum last night they know exactly what i'm looking to do we don't share that publicly only through our discord and our electrum members we are now exactly 30 seconds away from our inflation report pce the feds here you go the biggest here is the moment we're going to get it from you cnbc any second now we're just going to keep our eye on that the number we were expecting and forecasted was pce core pce the most important metric would be 0.3 percent uh in exactly 15 seconds from now we are going to get the numbers are you ready will it be up or down what's the market going to do i've got eight uh 800 000 in total across my portfolio in in treasury bills i'm expecting a crash here we go we've got one minute uh one second to go the number is durable goods has risen oh my god 7.9 percent from 3.4 inflation core pce is down it is down to 0.2 that is unexpected let's go big moment we're waiting for cnbc to catch up with us uh we're just going to keep our eye on there but we've got durable goods 7.9 percent personal income is flat that is dropped from 0.5 but we've got [00:02:02] Rick Santelli: here we go welcome back to squat box rick santelli here live in the friendly confines of cme hq with a long list of breaking news on this thursday morning let's start out with april personal income and spending and all the inflation metrics in this report income expected up four tens comes in light it comes in at zero unchanged equally in february you have to go back to may of last year to find a smaller number which was a negative on the spending side exactly as expected a path of one percent if you look at real spending adjusted for inflation exactly as expected up one tenth of one percent now let's get into the inflation metrics let's look at pce the non-core on a month-over-month basis up four tenths that's easier than the five tenths we're expecting three tenths less than the rearview mirror equaling february january was less up three tenths now if you look at a year-over-year perspective up 3.8 exactly as expected however it's a bit hotter than our last look which was 3.5 3.8 well to find a higher number you're looking at all the way back to four percent and that was in may of 23 so there was a bit of a jump there with respect to the inflationary pressures if we look at core numbers now month over month up two tenths less than expected one tenth less than the rearview mirror and maybe in my opinion one of the more important core pce year over year expected 3.3 comes out at 3.3 last look was 3.2 now let's go to initial claims coming in at 215 15 000 that's about 4 000 more than we expected rearview mirror gets upgraded from 209 to 210 000 listen 215 000 might be a little ahead of you know some of our loan numbers of late like the 190 level in the last week of april but still by historic standards very well behaved continuing claims very close to 1 million 786 000 now let's get into the durable goods shall we on the durable goods headline number comes in at 7.9 percent this is a whopper of a number we're expecting four percent 7.9 would be the best since the last huge number which was over 16 percent in may of 25 that's a biggie now let's see where the growth and the horsepower was once you strip out transportation it falls to 1.1 yes a big drop from 7.9 to 1.1 but 1.1 still more than double what we're expecting on x transportation up 1.1 will be the second highest of the year next to february's up 1.2 if we look at durable good orders non-defense x aircraft a proxy for capital spending a big disappointment here this is minus 1.1 however the good news is there's some mean reversion going on here because some of the past numbers have been super strong last month's 3.4 percent gets upgraded to 3.9 percent and that is a strong number on shipments comes in at up four tenths a little bit light we're not done quite yet let's look at what we have on gdp this is a first quarter number second time around the block if we look at the headline we lost four tenths from our first look which was two percent and that's what we're expecting a consistent two percent it dips to 1.6 and if we look at the consumption numbers they dip two tenths from 1.6 to 1.4 the inflation numbers the gdp price index one tenth lighter than both front and back 3.5 percent and drumroll please the last number core pce quarter over quarter comes in at 4.4 that's a little bit hotter than we're looking for and that would be the warmest since the first quarter of 2023 after all of those numbers the dow jones industrial average was minus 135 uh right now the futures markets are down about 113 so it's still negative but maybe less so a two-year note yield moved from 406 to 404 a 10-year note yield moved from 450 to 449 which would be up one basis point high watermark for tens was on the 19th last week pretty much the same day crude oil futures peaked and they both been moving quite closely together joe back to you right you know i had stepped out rick i missed that would you just repeat well just stand by interesting i'll go back and rewind for you [00:06:53] Speaker 3: can you imagine rick great job uh steve out of all those things um i don't know what to take away for the the pce didn't kill anyone on the core at least well to inflation in a second i want to [00:07:06] Speaker 4: point out what we talked about in the seven o'clock hour which is the savings rate which plunged to 2.6 income was stagnant uh spending was up a half a point so what did you do you took a half a point off of the savings rate we're looking at how people are trying to get by with this surge in gasoline it's up uh 5.5 percent in the pce index the inflation energy prices are higher people want to live the way they used to live they don't want to change the way they live so what do they do they'll use credit cards and they'll use their savings for a while until they adjust uh until they're forced to adjust their standard of living or the way they live from these higher oil prices so they're getting by right now it looks like it can't go on forever which is why people think and i'll talk about this more tomorrow um your increase in gas prices equaled your increase in tax refunds and so that's how people have one other way people have been getting by that's why there's concern about consumer spending come the summer time um when i look at the inflation data uh look we have an inflation problem that's exactly what fed officials have been saying that's exactly what markets have been pricing in you look at the 10-year you look at the two-year you can disaggregate it from a number of ways there are three factors out there there's the inflation factor there's the supply factor and there's a growth factor in there you took a little bit off the growth factor today so what happened to the 10-year i'm looking at that number not much movement rick and i have a disagreement on this i was surprised yesterday oil fell pretty strongly i didn't see the 10-year react as much the yield declined as much as i thought i was thinking that maybe we're putting in a new bottom here in the 440 area and that there's more upside to the yield to the yield and rick seems i don't know if he's still there but he has a different idea and of course great respect to his ideas he thinks we see four before five and i think we see 475 before four but i don't know well you know yesterday you said we didn't have a lot of [00:09:07] Rick Santelli: kickoff to the downside but we did trade down 4.44 and pretty much today's entire range is above yesterday's range although right now as the yields come down we're about ready to intersect yesterday's high yield with today's low yield right around 4.48 we i disagree because i've always thought in evidence of this on february 27th when the tenure was at 394 the cycle low yield close i said on the air many times i don't think we could spend a lot of time under four percent but after watching the behavior of tens markets don't need to be logical markets don't need to be textbook accurate with fundamentals i think that some of these yields are going to once again test four percent when this conflict is over and as i pointed out on squawk box two weeks ago joe 4.4 4.67 percent was my high watermark for resistance that pretty much was the high on the 19th and i do think we're going to see yields move a bit lower and i think when the conflict ends they're going to have a big drop the question is will it stay there and that's the issue i think there's a 30 chance the high yield for the year could be right around that four point six seven percent four sixty seven great all right uh thanks [00:10:30] Speaker 1: okay let's um let's wrap this up now um i have just cancelled my orders to sell my treasury bills to buy something this morning um i'm happy to stay where i am we didn't get much really from that it was as you can hear from the panel it was like is it up is it down what have we got here there was nothing in that for me i've got to be honest so i've just cancelled my uh treasury bill orders i'm not looking to buy coca-cola on a dip i'm certainly not looking to re-enter the s p 500 i am going to leave my money exactly where it is earning 3.55 percent um and we'll see uh sometimes doing nothing is the best thing to do so currently i'll show you on the screen this is my actual position so i've got 800 nearly 800 grand now there you go 733 000 i started with five thousand dollars nearly five years ago for the last three years i've beaten the market consistently uh in fact uh two to three x each year and i can share that with you if i go back to my actual uh performance here if we go to the s p 500 if we look at the s p 500 on year to date it's 9.34 okay an average year nothing booming nothing amazing we got a very good chance of rates going up uh inflation not really sticky not going up just kind of crawling along expecting to see a rate hike potentially uh later on this year as well that won't be great but there you go so 9.34 and let's have a look what i've done so if we look at the stocks and shares uh um position year to date if we go here i'm up 22.3 9 18 27 nearly 3x two and a half x the market i think you'll agree that's not too bad and when you consider i'm not in options i'm not in shorts i never do shorts in fact i've got no crypto in that at all no no margin that is all outperforming the market not by a bit but by a lot and the reason why i do that is i like to protect my money i don't focus on making money i focus on protecting my money and always winning and it's what we do so uh you know if you are one of the discordians or the electoral members we always win we always get it done so right now we have got a very interesting uh pce uh inflation and jobs report and uh personal spending durable goods it was all over the place so what i'm going to wait to see now is how the market reacts i'm not going to jump i'm not going to do anything too quick we're just going to wait and see so i tell you what we'll do we'll go to uh comments and questions in the chat um someone's already saying uh they're cooking the books um there is always that question i've got to be honest there is always that question um but uh you know i'm going to share now on my uh socials all the highlights from that all the numbers i've just put it all together for you while i was talking to you i was uh sharing i was putting it all together so here we go um i'm sharing it now on my social i'm going to go to live chat in a second just bear with me i'm putting all of these data points on my socials which is i'll give you the link right now there's x instagram if you want to go and check that out you can see all the data broken down for you so it all makes sense just making a couple of adjustments here okay there we go right one more i will come to comments and questions in a second just bear with me i want to make sure that all these data points are available everywhere [00:14:56] Speaker 5: is that one [00:15:02] Speaker 1: spot on okay 8 30 on the bell and then i'm going to come to comments and questions live right now on the show just give me a second please i'm going to make sure that everybody's got these data points before the market opens i'm not going to do anything i've just cancelled my orders 8 45 and one final one there we go nine o'clock so on my socials every 15 minutes the next hour and a half all the data i've done it every 15 minutes so you have chance to just check it out and read what it says so i've shared with you all my data points there okay let's go over to the chat oh sensei sent me um so red day tomorrow stock market exchange says salm salmi i can't really pronounce that i'm sorry i apologize for that henrik from denmark is here good morning to you chris afternoon all they're cooking the books well i don't know but it doesn't look uh it doesn't look to make too much sense to me i'm very glad to be where i am we'll go for the markets in a second or you says dalish liz is here this morning hello everyone i've been golf for a while what happened to sensei sensei's wife had a baby he was live just uh uh five minutes ago he's been live for the last 45 minutes have you not been watching uh let's have a look let's have a look um all sectors look pretty flat so far today yeah that's why i cancelled my orders sensei sent me good day martin hello from player de carmen hello jacko always a treat to have you here jacko how's life been with you mate are you well um i didn't know you were live i was with sensei that's right it's okay sensei went first i then overlapped here i am sensei sent to me that's right uh you can you can't watch two at the same time well maybe you can if you're really smart some people do not much point really though when it would get a bit chaos um look at drone drones yes i agree uh drones is a big opportunity uh businesses and the parachute drone company that catches the dead drones uh very very important i'm just going to give sensei a big thank you uh thank you very much indeed sensei sensei sent me devonshire northy you're all watching sensei were you unbelievable leaf said massive gap up overnight due to trump manipulation yeah i am uh i'm all in treasury bills as you can see on the screen that's why it's barcoding well that it's not but that's what it looks like good morning from destin eric ormond good morning to you sergi good morning to you can't find any of his videos what do you mean uh just go on the home page of the channel look for videos past live streams you can go to the playlist um they're all there um i'm not sure what you mean whiskey uh sensei sent me uh also if you are a member you get notified by email you get also discord uh we mention we let you know about all the events we share it on instagram and x by the way if you want to follow me on instagram and x i've gone semi-viral uh on instagram you might enjoy that check that out if you want discord and the newsletter there it is and become a member in the chat all right good morning says ninja cowboy sensei sent me ascend is here as well a lot of sensei sent me great living in riviera maya couldn't be better uh your stream makes my day glad to see you this morning mark is mark it's a greatest honor in the world to be here we've got such an amazing audience martin sent me that's good how do you manage that chris uh maybe i'm perma perma band that doesn't even make any sense what do you mean perma band uh you're not banned from anything you're talking to me live on the show not really sure i know what you mean mate uh slim how you doing 1970 buckley do you mean do you mean the newsletter do you mean the training videos then that's all done through discord uh maybe you're not a member on discord i don't know good morning 1970 buckley lovely to see you here sensei was just on just back from work didn't see martin's cover uh fine yes absolutely liz we overlapped this morning lovely wasn't it great listen me liz good morning brnh uh good morning to you uh liz this way get this this way deaf gaming uh human being liz sensei sent me kurt savage lovely i heard uh sensei last night trying to work out how to pronounce your name and uh it's kurt savage i've got it right haven't i i've got it right could everyone do me a favor you've just come from sensei show can you all tap the like button as soon as we get to 100 likes we'll get suggested on youtube which will be really really cool and i'd really really appreciate it all right so there you go uh sensei sent me dylan wilson good morning to you as well um i pulled my 1.17 xrp um tokens tax lots green yes i uh i pulled my order oh you you did the same thing yeah you pulled your order yeah i'm not selling this morning there's no point uh i'm not looking to buy anything remember my treasury bills is my cash it's what earns me 3.55 i get paid minute by minute so i don't um sell that unless there's a reason i had a limit order set at 166 so i catch today's interest but there was no point uh no point and we'll go through the positions right now um so kurt savage hello to you good morning wizard investing good morning and frank meyer and zach zeit is here william myers sensei sent me and zach sight right let's go through all our positions this morning let's see where we are so there's my portfolio we're green we're always green let's have a look uh we're in uh treasury bills 800 grand all in treasury bills i do not trust the market do not trust oil and i'm going to break it all down for you in a minute why i don't trust oil why i don't trust the market i'm going to give you a deep dive breakdown in a second so stand by for that that's coming up in a second um just going through all the screens and all the messages make sure we're good right so i'm green i'm making some money 800 grand earning 3.55 the snp is going up wonderful i'm not buying it no way am i buying the snp at 28 times earnings the reason why people are buying it is because they just automatically do every month and because of the way it's structured uh the mag 7 gets all the money and they keep going up and that means the index keeps going up i'm not going to keep buying it at any price even though the snp 500 is the best thing i've ever invested in and i recommend everyone doing it i don't buy it when it's overbought so virgin galactic sold everything off all right palantir up today should i uh just trying to think i'll tell i'll tell you what i'll make a little rundown of this i'll make some little shorts out of this um that's what i'm going to do here we go let's uh let's do this okay inflation report this morning was a bit of uh we don't really know not much to say about it so here is my rundown for the morning i cancelled my orders to sell my treasury bills uh there's no point i'm not buying the market i'm not really looking for anything today i want to wait and see how the market reacts i don't guess i don't gamble there's a reason why i've gone from 5 000 to nearly 800 000 by beating the market for the last three years in a row two to three x each year no options no shorts no guessing no gambling and no crypto right now i'm not going to lose my money i've worked too damn hard for it so let's go through and and see this morning where we are i've just shared on all of my socials from x to instagram all my shorts and everywhere uh all the data points this morning from the cpe inflation report but let's look now at all our positions so that's why it looks like i'm barcoding because i am in treasury bills at the moment protecting my money it's not about making money that makes you money it's about protecting money that makes you money not by selling the top but by always buying the bottom that is how i always win so let's go through here we go the s p 500 is going up today would you want to buy this at near 28 times earnings no flipping way i am not buying this i do not trust the market i'm expecting one almighty crash so the s p is going up but i'm not buying it and it's not going up very much on this news it doesn't know how to react to it so it doesn't know how to react to it i'm not going to guess or gamble i'm going to wait and see virgin galactic well we can see we're nearly at four dollars a couple of days ago in fact we were through four dollars and now it's giving it all back up i warned everybody of this and told you anything with the word space in it is getting pumped because of spacex and then it dumps straight away i'm not buying this i don't gamble i don't guess i always win palantir well palantir is too expensive way too expensive we can't buy palantir at these prices and again this will be the first to drop moving on to gold gold well gold is down not surprisingly uh it doesn't actually produce anything it's a hedge well what are you hedging against right now the market doesn't really know which way to go i do i believe we've got a bloody great crash coming but most people don't and in a few moments i'm going to give you a full breakdown of where i think it's going looking at some latest information in the oil market amazon a great business but it's part of the mag 7 that gets bought up no matter what so it always gets overbought the s&p just keeps going up it's a great business but i can't buy it at these levels apple a great business as well but too expensive right now yes i know it's one you can always own you don't have to trade it but it's just simply too expensive enphase energy enphase energy i said to start buying this in my opinion anyway around 24 was i right yes you've nearly three extra money i was telling people to buy this when everybody else was selling sponsors of enphase energy were telling you to buy around the hundred dollars i said no wait buy it at 24 it went there and it's going to a hundred dollars you're going to be a winner this is a top sector energy is the sector to be in enphase is one of the best in the industry i like it very well protected but not protected from high interest rates because no one can afford solar and rates might be going up coca-cola well this is my defensive play this is the business i know more about i focus on knowing a lot about a few things rather than a bit about everything coca-cola i understand 100 is going to 90 dollars i am very confident of that however i'm expecting a major pullback that means the smp could drop 40 percent crypto could drop 80 coca-cola could still go down 20 so i'm not buying on the way to its its price target however yesterday i tried to buy it 80 and 30 cents and i missed out my order did not go through and yesterday i missed out on gains of ten thousand dollars i had my price to buy price to sell and yesterday live on the show i would have made ten thousand dollars unfortunately my order did not go through as many people said oh that's robin hood it's a conspiracy no it's not it was simply the bid and the ask just because the price on the screen says one thing that's robin hood smoothing it out it's moving all the time if you look deeper at the bids and the asks i was simply expecting it to be too cheap and i that's what i wanted i didn't want to overpay for it i wanted the price that i wanted and i never got it it didn't go that low even though it looked like it did on the screen today i was hoping to buy coca-cola as a defensive play if the market wasn't sure of where it was going and the inflation was was of a certain number but none of that happened so i'm not selling my treasury bills i'm not buying coca-cola unless for some reason when the bell goes in half an hour from now as you can see from the clock above my head or below wherever you're watching uh if it drops down to 80 then i will sell my treasuries and i will buy coca-cola but for now i'm sitting and waiting johnson and johnson another defensive play johnson johnson is also supporting the market it's a great business i'm very happy to own this a great dividend like coca-cola a solid industry a solid sector in the market right now chevron oil well we're going to come on to oil in a minute i'm very concerned about oil i think everyone's in for a shock i think everyone's pricing it wrong and in a moment i'm going to explain exactly why tesla tesla part of the mag 7 well this is about to be destroyed why because of spacex the tesla bros think it's great that elon musk wants to link spacex to tesla it's the worst thing that could happen and we know that because ron baron gets rolled out a big tesla bull who's got a lot of money invested in tesla gets rolled out just before the inflation reports to say tesla's going to 4 000 not if it merges with spacex it's not spacex is a terrible business i am planning on trading on the day with one and a half million dollars available to me with a hundred grand first trade i will not share my trades publicly that's all shared for my discordians and my electra members but tesla will pay the biggest price for spacex ipo mcdonald's a defensive play up today it's not a burger business however the burger index indicates people are spending less walmart have told us coca-cola have told us um target have told us mcdonald's mcdonald's told us pretty much with with certainty a recession not just a crash is coming google we like google or at least we did uh my price target was 400 i think we've touched it and bounced off it and come back down again i can't buy it here it's now too expensive in these conditions microsoft well microsoft is microsoft but it is just simply too expensive we can't buy it here meta platforms a stock i can see going to 800 but not in this climate i'm not buying it here even though i can see it going to 800 because we'll get a bigger dip before we run up for its final leg up nvidia a great business i like nvidia i'm all over nvidia remember this i bought this at 179 i also bought it around the hundred dollar mark as well my price target famously on the show was 250 a share uh banks were giving it 300 300 a share and as you know i talked directly with the banks directly with ripple um robin hood i got all over the place different connections who have confirmed to me 250. however we went we went up a bit we've sold off because it just is preparing for a much bigger drop i can't buy it now i've already made my money i'm not giving it back walmart walmart well walmart has crashed down the last few days started to rise a bit today i wouldn't buy it here i'd buy it under a hundred dollars though it's more of an ai play than a defensive play today and particularly because of the recession that they've predicted and the pullback and the spending yesterday live on the show we had an employee of walmart tell us that high wealth uh individuals are tipping less spending less the whole cycle is turning down walmart on their earnings have told us so the this this uh dropped like about 20 percent somewhere in that region recently on the earnings i'm not buying it here people have started to buy a staple because they're forgetting what happened a couple of days ago and it's the it's part of the s p but i'm not buying it here until it goes around till ray brands well what can i say people like to gamble it it worries me that the education level for investing uh has dropped in the united states people are more prepared to gamble and guess on things now than they've ever done it's a very very bad way to play you're giving all your money to those that create the markets till ray brands has no value whatsoever i've told you it's a 40 stock with reclassification some say we've got it we simply don't and i also told you reclassification comes with the business restructuring as well none of that has happened in this sector none of it's going to happen this year in this sector and you just keep gambling and guessing and keep holding and losing your money i'm not buying till ray brands i would rather buy it at 20 knowing it's going to 40 than buy it at 5.53 when it could go to zero robin hood market well we bought robin hood market and we've sold robin hood many times and made lots of money from it sold it recently 84 dollars i won't buy it here because it relies on crypto and in my opinion even though crypto has value and i've owned it and traded it and all i understand all the benefits of it right now i see bitcoin more likely to go to 50 000 than a hundred thousand xrp more likely to go to 80 cents than three dollars right now long term yes i see all of those prices going up but right now it's not right for me to buy which means robin hood will go down as well vertical aerospace well everything in the space sector went up this is not technically space but anything uh av aviation or futuristic or new or techie or exciting is getting the spacex trend all pre-revenue all very speculative we like it we have the number one analyst who speaks directly with the ceos live on our show every single day uh that's vaz is live uh exclusive on our on our channel talk to vaz see vaz's shows and you'll get lots of information about this sector we like it but right now this is preparing for a dump as is joby aviation exactly the same story and arch aviation exactly the same story then we come on to crypto well if you've been in crypto now the last two or three years i've outperformed you by just owning the snp and trading it at the right time not just not just by owning it and sat on it but by trading it at the right time focusing on protecting my money and buying it at the bottom bitcoin great yes but the last couple of years it's been a miserable story uh it's not made you any money and in fact if you consistently do the right thing over and over again as i've shown you for three to four nearly five years in fact now you can outperform most of speculative crypto assets or markets just by doing the the right thing for the longest time our uh warren buffett is argued at being the greatest investor of all time he just has done the right thing for a long time when he started off many many years made lots of mistakes he only made a few good moves one of those being coca-cola and stayed doing it for a long time as i've claimed on the show if i lived to uh until 200 i would end up being richer than elon musk just by doing the right thing for the longest time the same analogy if you doubled a penny every day for 30 days you would have over one million dollars you don't need to guess you don't need to gamble you can make money by doing the right thing simply for a long time the same story with xrp we're now one dollar 29 it's been slowly coming down over and over when will we get the full clarity act well who knows it could be delayed now until august by the time the president signs it so there'll be volatility between now and then most retail investors don't understand that they'll keep buying getting leveraged though they'll leverage a leveraged asset i've never understood why anyone uses leverage to buy a leveraged asset you've already got 30 40 50 60 100 pumps built into crypto why on earth would you want to attach leverage to that it's very dangerous and it's what causes most of the markets to to pull back and sell off retail over buying with leverage get margin called simple as simple as that and the control the money that controls it buys it all up i've done it many many times from people that simply overbuy with leverage and get tripped up as soon as a whale decides to dump it it happens over and over again i am long-term bullish on xrp however i can also see it going to 80 cents before it goes to three dollars ethereum well now ethereum is back under two thousand dollars i like ethereum i've spoken to the people that run it on the networks it's a great asset i understand it i get it however it's front man like michael sailor for bitcoin is tom lee tom lee is a salesman and i understand because i have done interviews on bloomberg tv i understand the marketing the makeup the concept the drama the slow voice the messy hair the scientist the scientist glasses the very softly spoken voice and most importantly the badges on his lapel advertising granny shots and the ethereum so we understand where he's going he's a salesman and his predictions have been absolutely rubbish but rather than say i'm wrong which i will say i'm wrong i just haven't been wrong for three years he will say it's an opportunity and this is a very important statement to make because as i've done interviews with bloomberg tv and i understand the makeup of all this in 2008 after the last crash they decided the tv network decided we don't talk about crashes now our advertisers don't like it our sponsors don't like it we talk about opportunity and you'll see it all the time it's always an opportunity to buy rather than addressing it's actually a crash that way people always look like winners they always look like they're right and in fact they're just salesmen and they want you to watch the tv and see the commercials that is why we are not sponsored ethereum is great but i could see it going down 80 percent if i'm right with the crash and i think i will be right okay there's my breakdown of all the positions this morning i'm now going to bring you my oil story and explain all of that to you as well so let's get ready you can see the market isn't doing that much it's just kind of hovering i am not going to sell my treasury bills let's talk about this this is the big story of the day here we go so let's go into our big story of the day oil markets are betting on a swift end to the iran war investors may regret that i've been talking about this now for quite some time telling people what is about to occur and no one seems to be paying any attention whatsoever in fact no one thinks we have a problem well i think we do i think we have a major crash just around the corner and i'm betting everything on it with my own money the markets think the oil markets are going to come down and why do they think that because a lot of insiders government insiders are betting shorting oil to bring it down just for it to go back up to 150 a barrel i think they're going to regret that decision so traders are grappling with huge swings in oil prices against a backdrop of conflicting rhetoric from washington and tehran the us and iran exchange regulatory strikes this this week sorry retaliatory strikes this week despite oil markets pricing in and easing of hostilities a swift fall back to pre-war price remains unlikely leaving investors and consumers disappointed so why is this happening why do we constantly have oil is about to come down best prices on oil ever the markets going to boom well this might be right and i might be wrong i might i may have made the biggest mistake of my life by selling the snp but i don't think so i think categorically that spacex is going to crash the nasdaq and that will happen around september october when all those seed investors get out and take their profits and down she goes these are my opinions this is what i think let's move on to the next part of my story here we go oil futures are still pricing a quick resolution to the iran war but analysts warn that investors and consumers are likely to be left disappointed i couldn't agree more prices jumped more than three percent at one point early on thursday after the us and iran exchanged fresh missile strikes and hostilities in the middle east appeared to re-escalate brent crude the international price benchmark was last seen 2.1 percent higher at 96.29 while the us west texas intermediate futures were back above 90 a barrel after a 2.4 rise everyone thinks it's gonna be great i just don't see it and what i'm sharing you these images here are all the things i'm concerned with spacex on fire the dollar in trouble bitcoin crashing the markets crashing all these images of fear and stress i've put together for you well i'm green today that's why the studio is green i am very much i very much believe that the yen carry trade i'm sharing that with you now bank of japan will have a carry trade less likely immediately but i still believe it's coming interest rate decisions all of this are going to affect everything i've spoken about let's carry on callum mcpherson head of commodities at investech said investors are finding it incredibly hard to get a handle on the ongoing price swings noting how markets are being whipsawed by constantly shifting signals from both washington and tehran who wins who wins those with the money and the power trump has done a trade every single minute since he's been in power 24 hours a day since he arrived in office he's always winning people around him are always winning and tehran actually have the power right now they're more emboldened and more empowered now than they were before the war yes there's lots of stuff blown up on the ground but now they control the straits with apparent diplomatic progress frequently contradicting within hours it is you don't know whether we're up whether we're down and i think everyone has got kind of complacent expecting it all to be okay and they're pricing it in to be okay i don't think so mcpherson highlighted reports on wednesday that iranian officials had discussed a memorandum of understanding containing areas of agreement between both sides only for the white house to later dismiss the claims as untrue the conflicting rhetoric is unfolding alongside renewed strikes and retaliatory attacks in the in the region that are putting a fragile ceasefire at risk of breaking down while markets are finding ways of muddling through for now mcpherson said the current situation is ultimately unsustainable now even though we didn't get an inflation hike today and i was expecting it i'll say i'm wrong i'm wrong i thought today inflation was going to be up however sometimes we can miss a report and it can show up in the next one i stand by what i say but i admit today i was wrong however you say i'm wrong but the market doesn't really like it does it not yet anyway it's red right now i don't like it even though we didn't get that blow off inflation as i predicted we would i think it may be hidden in the numbers and later on we'll get some revisions and when we do things could look very different coca-cola now a defensive play is trying to push up what does that tell you however it didn't go low enough for me to buy so i'm not going to buy just yet look at the price of oil this is ice brent crude look at it even though we've pulled back just stand back don't focus in the second by second we're still very very elevated and if you draw a line through overall like i like to draw a line for the stock market you will find the real value price is what you pay value is what you get it's very hard for the markets to know how to react to all of this mcpherson told cnbc europe's early edition on thursday so i've caught this right in time this is breaking news even though i've got this on the show right now this is live to you this is happening just moments ago there are real consumers and producers and refiners that need to trade they need to hedge themselves and buy cargoes prices have to be made clearest premium in oil prices he said there is an evidence of some vessels moving through the strait of amuse but little indication of a return to normality on the vital shipping lane trump says everything's fine things are moving they're not they simply are not and this is all fact check verified information but little indication of a return to normality on the vital shipping lanes as a result prices are unlikely to return to 60 70 dollars a barrel seen immediately before the conflict and remember if they take time to come down anyway the inflation is just coming down the pipe it just hasn't arrived yet today's report didn't give us that inflation spike but i think it's coming it's all about having confidence that the war definitely has ended and we're not going to have another flare-up he added markets are coping but there needs to be proper resolution relatively soon how many times have you heard from everybody involved in the markets needs to be soon needs to be this week needs to be tomorrow next week two weeks three weeks four weeks three months people keep pushing the can down the line and what happens what's happened by pushing the can down the line record amounts of debt for the united states i don't budget that way i say if it's wrong i say if it's bad i do not just go it's okay and i apologize i've clicked the wrong button there we go sorry about that um i don't think we can keep kicking it down the can i think we have a major problem that nobody wishes to face as we look again at wti crude overall it keeps going up draw a line through the center don't focus on the day-to-day the minute by minute matt's brisman senior equity analyst at hargreaves lansdowne said that the low to mid 90s price show there is still a clearest premium attached to the conflict for now the market looks caught between short-term nerves over renewed hostilities and a lingering hope that both sides still have enough incentive to get energy flows moving britzman said in a note the bigger picture is that crude oil is still on course for a second weekly decline suggesting investors are not yet pricing in a worse case disruption that is a big problem and i do the very opposite i'm always prepared to protect my money i think the markets just think everything is going to keep going up and we are going to be fine i don't believe it for a second neither does the market today right now we have 10 minutes ago before the bell goes the market doesn't look too sure of itself either does it anyway let's look at it coca-cola just trying to edge up but not really sure where it's going i know where it's going and i'm standing by my predictions and i'll say if i'm wrong now for three years i've beaten the market two and three x's for three years in a row i've beaten buffett i've beaten every hedge fund i've beaten berkshire hathaway i've beaten the market for three years in a row without options without shorts without gambling without guessing that is what i've been able to do so it is what it is i'm protecting my money and i'm not buying anything today as we stand at this moment sim mo xiong fx strategist at ogbc group research also warned that a decline in oil prices is unlikely to be fast highlighting to rent tehran's capacity to disrupt the strait of amuse as a key constraint i think this could continue indefinitely now infrastructure damage renewed strategic stockpiling and higher structural risk premium will likely keep prices sticky there we go so there is my thoughts on the market today what do you make of that i hope that was helpful i hope that was useful i've broken down all the stocks we're now going to go back to comments and questions in the chat and there we go i hope that was useful all right okay let's come back to here and let's get ready we've got nine minutes before the market opens i'm going to send all my thoughts i just shared there with you up onto my socials to break them down into 10 second 15 second 20 second pieces uh so i'm going to do that right now for you live here okay here we go you can have this right away there you go so if you uh get a bit uh where you you know don't have the time to watch 12 hours a day with me and i understand that i mean that makes kind of sense i also provide you with little clips on my clips channel um which you can watch for free with no ads no memberships um i'll give you some of those links right now i'm just sharing this up in my account right now so let me give you those links and i'm going to come to comments and questions there is my x account if you follow me on x or you can also follow sensei and vas because i only follow them so you can see who i'm following and follow my team there is x you see all of my uh little clips every 30 minutes throughout the day 24 hours a day i post you little sections from the show you might prefer instagram i've got a viral audience on instagram some of my little clips have gone viral um i was only a thousand followers just a few weeks ago i'm now about to hit 5 000 followers it's incredible how quickly i've grown on instagram if you like instagram and you'd like to engage with me you can i've shared instagram in the chat for you just there if you want discord and our newsletter right after this right off the bell we're going to be live discussing our next trades getting ready for the spacex one and a half million dollars in play um with a hundred thousand dollars first trade i'm preparing all my trades but i'm not sharing it at all with anyone live on the show unless i trade live on the show of course it's all shared with my discordians only and my electrum members and you can join for a couple of bucks there's no inflation ever there's no price increase ever there's no ai trolls bots it's all live with me sensei and vas we do two stage events every trading day you get all of my trades 24 7 you can message me directly at three o'clock in the morning and i respond if i'm asleep at that moment i won't of course but i respond personally for you no ai with my voice i talk to you don't use ai it's really me and i will show all my trades and for three years i've beaten the market three two three x for three years in a row you can see all of that i share it all with you and uh you can have it all for a couple bucks 90 discount and once you're inside discord you can get the newsletter at 40 off our best deal for our discordians always all right you've got personal uh personal support real pro investors uh we have a a very good interview process so if we get we don't any idiots no advertisers no no ad there's no commercial sponsors coming in and if anyone is cruel unkind and not providing any value to anybody we kick them out straight away uh so if you come in to disrupt you'll be banned and uh with discord of course you can only create one account because it's linked to your email and numbers your cell phone and you cannot have like 100 accounts and because of that we keep a very safe space private space and you can get a lot out of it so there you go there's our discord it's i think it's pinned to the top isn't it and there is my membership link for disk electrum if you want to get all the trades right five minutes to go let me now go to comments and questions coca-cola is now selling off again so is the snp that shows me the market doesn't know what to do i already knew not what to do before this before when we got the report an hour ago i'm not doing anything the snp is going down at the same time as coca-cola is now coming back down again i am not guessing or gambling i'm staying right where i am right let me go to comments and questions now let's see if i can get through all the comments so let me just double check make sure i do have it pinned to the top yes i do have my trades pinned to the top so you can see discord i will onboard you at the end once we've gone through the market on uh we'll ring the bell together and uh then i'll onboard anyone who wishes to join me today on discord with my real voice talking to you live on the show you'll see me doing it so if you want to join discord now's a good time i will onboard you live today on the show okay i only allow two people a day to join uh red day tomorrow stock markets uh says says sal um henrik good morning to you afternoon chris um uninvested numbers genuinely revised are worse tony thank you for that that's exactly what i was thinking liz oi oi says dalish i've been gone for a while what happened to sensei he's here he's not gone anywhere oh i've read all these comments already uh i've read all those let me skip back down uh here we go dan uh good more afternoon to you hello would appreciate a review of service now if you have a chance please martin tony sawyer uh well if you are an electrum member we do those for free on electrum events we got a new member fantastic my promise to you is no price increase ever no inflation ever and i'll add more services all the time thank you so much for becoming a member you can now message me you can now comment to the videos and i reply to all of my members when we've got members only the ceo interviews you can talk directly to the ceos um i can't believe another new member oh my gosh we're getting another this is fantastic thank you so much indeed uh was wondering where you're going good morning good morning good morning to you sensei sent me i'm trying to catch up with the comments let me get get near the bottom here we go let me read from here good morning everyone said uh bernard hi martin stella is going up so quick what are your thoughts about xlm i don't know much about xlm you need to speak to sensei about that he's our crypto expert i know a lot about xrp as i speak to ripple and bitcoin and ethereum anything else no i don't focus on it higher international oil prices make us source oil more attractive that is correct but of course if uh if more people buy from oil from america you'll have inflation and it will cost more at the pumps which means the mark the economy will be and will suffer for it yes the oil markets will make money trump will make money the government will make money but you will not make money more unless you own oil of course but buying it will cost you more more new members joining thank you so much indeed two minutes to go morning all good to be with you this morning mark saxby it's always lovely to have you here an honor in fact i love your content on x great content as always eric ormond thank you consider becoming a member be part of the family the lucas aids we're in 76 countries uh very informative and spot on mark freya that's very kind thank you very much indeed martin's discord community is top notch thank you it's an it's the least expensive discord server on discord we could charge hundreds of dollars and get it people do with ai bots trolls and rubbish predictions they do we do not do that or we got some gifts from mx china that promotes the server sorry promotes the channel and gets us ranked on youtube thank you for that thank you very much that's a real help so 1970 buckley gifted five memberships this morning please do thank 1970 buckley go to your membership page on youtube now 45 seconds to go and uh upgrade and become an electron member you've got 27 discount now as you've just been given a membership amazing uh sean john is here xlm is up it is indeed sensei i'm sure we'll cover it yes free my mind xlm in retail xrp one minute here we go 25 seconds to go we're about to cover the market let's get ready to rock and roll are you ready you know what's coming right you know what's coming 15 seconds drink some tea start by drinking some tea 10 seconds to go here we go five four three two one the bell has gone it's time to rock and roll let's go for all our position smash the like button everybody consider subscribing let's go through the market boom boom boom boom boom boom here we go so we're in we're in treasury bills the snp doesn't know what to do it's going down i'm not buying this no inflation was not great was not bad i don't know what it means so i'm not buying it as simple as that we got another new member new members daniel welcome to the party virgin galactic straight down i told you i warned you for god's sake sell it at four dollars i hope you did it you could have made yourself a fortune i know here it comes martin was right again palantir too expensive don't buy that height nonsense gold down 0.5 amazon selling off way too expensive the snp is too expensive apple selling off and phase energy it doesn't like these interest rates going up or they're gonna go up all right still up though still a great buy but i would be trimming some now and phase and you take some profit for god's sake you give me three extra money coca-cola there it goes on the way down defensive and the snp going down lovely stuff once we get around the 80 we'll buy some more we're not buying it yet i'm loving it loving it loving it let me get coca-cola on my radar once again uh we're not buying it yet though we're in no rush we're in no rush to buy this lovely that's what we want johnson johnson defensive going down johnson defensive the snp is not moving and defensive is going down that is a bad sign for the market but very good for us the investors discordians and electric members oil going back up tesla down pushing up mcdonald's defensive going down we love it opportunity to buy here it comes google trying to go up but no microsoft too expensive meta platforms up but pulling back uh nvidia trying to go up because it's it really is oversold but i wouldn't buy it here walmart going down they've told you everything you need to know till ray brands no value whatsoever robin hood there goes crypto boom no rate cuts you're going to see crypto going down now vertical aerospace i wouldn't space why are you buying that why are you buying that why are you buying that nonsense bitcoin going down there you go i was right again xrp coming back down ethereum 1 980 absolute nonsense it's all going down and we're holding our positions there very very good let's have a party here we go [01:04:27] Speaker 6: i'm watching my coca-coda for opportunity i'll be right back i'm watching my coca-coda for opportunity and i'm watching my coca-coda so i'll be right back and i'm watching my coca-coda so i'm watching my coca-coda and i'm watching my coca-coda and i'm watching my coca-coda and i'm watching my coca-coda and i'm watching my coca-coda so i'm watching my coca-coda and i'm watching my coca-coda and i'm watching my coca-coda [01:04:54] Speaker 1: welcome to the big show this morning it's great to have you here it's an honor it's the greatest job in the world to serve you i love what i do we're in 76 countries every day in 14 different languages i believe it is and uh we've been right now for three years uh this is just wonderful so what we're doing now we're looking for the opportunity i am anyway my discordians electro members if we can buy a discount on coca-cola not yet not yet this is not the time to buy it we're not going to buy it yet but we're going to keep our eye on it we're going to keep focus on it um i'm in fact i'm going to yeah bitcoin's going down now xrp's going down 129 coca-cola is falling off a cliff a little bit for a defensive play but we're going to wait we're going to have patience uh we're not going to buy yet so we're just going to keep our eye on our overall portfolio there we go we're looking at these are all we look what we're looking at we don't clutter it up and get lots of things going on at once but we simply look at a handful of things so we're looking at bitcoin we want to get back into bitcoin but not at these prices oh uh thank you for your subscription uh i really do appreciate it so we're just going to watch and we're going to wait and in about 25 minutes we're going to go over to discord for our first uh pro stage event of the day every day i'll i'll onboard you as well in a moment so let's put out a few um brief clips for you uh so my first one's going to go out on the hour let me do that now on the hour not would we'll put [01:06:55] Speaker 5: this out at nine nine o'clock there it is [01:07:05] Speaker 1: right very very good i'll put another one at 9 30. i'm scheduling my events out for you throughout the morning so i'm going to show you how you can get all of these so if you want just nice little clips 15 20 second clips to give you all the information of the day so you can stay informed and up to date with all the price predictions and what's going on on them oh another new member this is awesome stuff um we're getting loads of new members today another one hang on let me come back and see where these members coming from this isn't who donated membership this morning um ah it was frank frankie frankie gifted five memberships and let me oh there we go there you go watch uh coco cola go down fantastic love it that's exactly what we want so would you please go and thank frank for giving you memberships and what does it mean frank is a member he's paid for membership he's it's not me giving free memberships i can't give free memberships it's members paying for you to have a membership so what happens when they give you a membership well you can see members on your videos members on your live streams in fact what we're going to do now because we are getting so busy this morning this fine morning we're going to go over to members only that way i can answer every question we can keep trolls out bots out idiots out and i say idiots because i mean it a lot of people who who uh who who try to come in and destroy things are actually idiots i can't believe this there's a lot of idiots in the world let me tell you a lot of idiots right we're members only now so only um members can communicate in the the chat that way we can speak to real investors because we're here to make money we're here to win for our audience we don't want to waste time larking around with people that just want to make themselves look important they can do that somewhere else right so what we're going to do is go to members only there we go we are members only now we're watching coca-cola sell off this is absolutely perfect it's perfect because the s p is going down as well so it's like an all over sell off now this is exactly what i predicted so we're going to have like maybe 40 percent later in the year but this is nothing right but we want to be able to start buying a defensive player a defensive play and trading it because you can get these little scalps on it uh i've been doing this now every day you know three four hundred dollars every single day just easy money just in and out no options no guessing no gambling oh there we go there we go i'm not going to rush you to buy though because 90 is the target i'm going to buy 81. 81. we're going to wait and if we miss it we just don't care we're not going to chase it we'll let our we'll let money come to us so um let me show you what you need to do if you've just won a membership if you just won a membership i'd like to show you what you need to do right and if you don't do this you're missing out and also you're missing out on all the fun all the trades all the stuff and essentially you can getting it for near nothing all right because somebody just bought it for you so this is what you need to do go onto the home page where you're watching right now on youtube right and you'll see across the top it says membership see that membership click on membership and you'll see look i'm a member of my own channel with my other self my musical self my musical channel is a member of the channel i've got a four-year badge check me out right so you go over here and you go upgrade because you've just been given a bronze membership for free so now you can upgrade basically you get electrum like 27 discount right i mean might as well right you click upgrade like this because if you don't do anything you'll lose it and our we've got more ceo interviews live on the show we've we just had we had two was it two last week i get now um or i love coca-cola keep on going keep on going so what you can do is you can choose whatever level you want now a promise for me is there's no inflation ever there's no increase ever and we add more benefits all the time i want my youtube membership to be the best membership in the world so i provide more than anyone i go live more than anyone i refuse to have sponsors you'll never see a sponsor on this channel going buy this buy that i can you believe that graham stephan and meet kevin said thank you no we have to have a sponsor to support the channel you make millions out of ad revenue you and memberships you don't need a sponsor it's greedy i will never do it i don't do it all right so if you choose electrum all right not only do you get all the bronze and silver but you get all of the trades 24 7 so you know what i'm trading and for three years i've beaten the market never lost right three years two to three x the market for three years so you can see all my trades and all the rest of it if you're gold and we have about 70 gold members they have one hour a month with me privately so you can have a private video call with me one month uh one hour every month now my time is worth about six 700 bucks an hour that's what i earn i can earn more than that if i go out and do a gig as the world piano man uh 10 grand if i go down to mark cuban's place like i do from i have done from time to time in the past so i give you my time for about 10 bucks or 15 bucks more than electrum all right so i'm giving it to you i'm not i'm not making money out of it time we take out the commission to youtube and the tax i might make five bucks so it's not about it's not about the money it's about providing service you can sponsor the channel so if you've got a youtube channel or instagram or a website you want everyone to visit you corporate sponsorships can't sponsor us but you as a viewer can i get offered 34 even 50 grand to do marketing for people and i say no you can have that for 99 as a viewer i'll show on the screen your youtube channel get everyone to follow it it's good in it easy as that all right or a platinum investor we have one a whale who watches the show who gets his own videos and his own live streams platinum investor only got one don't expect anyone here to do that today so there you go that is the membership let me just change that back okay shut that down now then i asked you this morning to vote in the poll this is our poll which trends on google all right so if you've not yet seen our poll they're on the community pages we have members only polls members only events and all sorts go and vote on this poll because this trends on google not just youtube but actually on google there is the link in the chat i put it there twice and i asked you would we have a red or green day today right let's refresh it there's no votes at the moment far as you can see on the screen no votes at the minute let me zoom in no votes has everyone done it takes a set takes a second five four three two one where are we now 114 votes red you predicted correctly it would be a red day that is my electrum members and that is my discordians you were right because you were informed you weren't guessing you weren't gambling you weren't listening to bro channels wearing baseball caps and giant headphones why they do that i've no idea there's no reason for it if you know how to monitor your sound why they sit there with headphones you see them all these bros with a big head what the hell are you doing why are you doing that monitor your audio you don't idiots so if you're watching all that stuff you might have been getting it wrong we knew it was going to be red and 68 of our viewers did so i'm really really proud of that as the number gone up 114 votes these uh 113 how could you how could it go down one you can't remove your vote how did someone do that that's probably someone just got banned on youtube yeah look at that that that was our system working there what that means is if we get scammers and we we get trolls we get idiots we get stupid people that make it their life mission just to say i'm i'm an idiot that's their whole life right they just that's what they do rather than earning money and winning they just spend their whole life saying martin's an idiot right we have a system now that we can detect scammers vpn users fake accounts they multiple accounts all kinds of stuff and when that happens they get banned on youtube and they end up you're not able to you can create more accounts but you can't engage you can't follow stuff you end up literally destroying yourself and we love we love it we we find it funny so uh one person literally there just got banned that was an account being deleted by our system it's awesome isn't it anyway very very nice anyway let's move on i i like to whack a troll it does make me laugh right let's come back to our trading position cookaco is bouncing back a bit i didn't buy it no no way i'm not chasing up to that let me just show you the market where we are so we're nicely tucked up in our treasury bills we've got time to buy the dividend if we want that but remember the dividend is not free it ends up selling off anyway it's it covers the price will react to the dividend payout so you can't get free money from coca-cola staying in gives you free money kind of but it's not you don't buy it because people go oh can i buy coca-cola before the first of july and then i get oh then i get the 55 cent dividend well no it doesn't work that way all right the s p down trying to go back up again uh virgin galactic trying to go back up again after the sell-off palantir well just mental people who buy this on the bro channels they just pump it up themselves and then alex carp the ceo sells it from underneath them it's hilarious gold going up um but down amazon's still selling off apple down but trying to pick up again enphase trying to pick up again coca-cola you see a little bit bounce there and it was sold straight away i'm not buying this and again i'm not looking at the chart i'm simply talking to people that work there understand what the value of the business is and just buying the value that's it it's not rocket science it's really quite straightforward actually uh so there's not much action going on today now i don't think the market is going to give us very much there's no major earnings report that the um the the report we've got out today was pretty rubbish i think the market's confused the market's getting anesthetized now to to trump the up the down the up the down doesn't even pay any attention anymore and too many investors old school investors those that think the market always goes up it doesn't it's just inflation that devalues it makes it go up so many people like that i've got some millionaire friends that live around me who pay people like 10 like fisher and these are these financial institutions uh merrill lynch banks you know whatever they pay the money to tell them basically to buy the snp and they think they're smart and they think they're clever they're not stupid and they go but just gotta buy the dip martin the market always goes up so what is what happens no it doesn't the market goes up because money gets devalued and by you staying in the market for 20 years you're up but you could have been up 10 times that amount if you bought the dips you're just focusing on buying and holding that's not an investor that's just somebody going to work and earning money that's not an investor an investor realizes value understands macro conditions markets tax financial indicators all right i'm a long-term investor but i also trade actively right there's nothing smart about i've got a really high paid job well good for you and i put all my money in the stock market and in 100 years i'll be up well of course you will an idiot could do that you calling me an idiot well yeah you're an idiot you're just a big fat rich idiot that's all gets that's gets an overpaid job that's all that is what we're trying to do on this channel is help people who don't have any money to make money people who work at mcdonald's people have a low paid job who want to make money from their money that's what we do we have a few whales who watch us as well that understand that but the majority of our audience are normal people there you go you see that look just wait have patience the market makes no sense just have patience it's all you've got to do but at the end of the day you know we're here to help normal people who just want to support their family that's it not rich people who who just have lots of money and go well i just i just keep buying every month i think this trading is stupid if you just dollar cost average who the hell taught you that a monkey an idiot dollar cost averaging is rubbish oh it's all over youtube oh yeah yeah all the crypto bro channels it was made up by flipping uh buddy bit boy before he ended up cheating on his wife taking drugs and getting getting ousted by his own team on youtube people talk about it all the time go to the moon buy the dip dollar cost average and then people will say but warren buffett says that warren buffett does not say that oh yes he does yes he does no he doesn't you've got to read it in context people don't read anymore they want the headline dollar cost average i remember when when um when when uh some famous crypto channels uh call to the moon oh god they picked up and said warren buffett says buy when there's blood on the streets so they go they use that as their phrase in their show blind buy when there's blood on the streets he wasn't referring to bitcoin was he he wasn't referring to bitcoin but no one reads the whole book they read the headline because they're too bloody lazy to read the whole book or too stupid because some of the words are too complicated so they don't read it they just go well blood on the streets well buy the dip if you are a passive investor if you earn money and you've got a good job and you know how the money you earn is plenty of money you're not struggling you're not the average american across america to paycheck to paycheck you've got a really good job you earn six figures all right you've got a really nice job you earn good money don't be so stupid and arrogant and just go i just buy every month every month and discount dollar cost average because you'll be up in 20 years because you earned money not because you invested wisely and money got devalued so if you just hold it in the bank all your money that you earned your balance would go up because you've earned money but your buying power is destroyed four percent every single year that's what would have happened and that is exactly what you've actually done by buying dollar cost averaging yes you've bought assets which have gone up to compensate for the inflation so you how smart are you you're only smart because you bought uh the index the market rather than putting it in the bank but you're not an investor you're a collector you're a rich in a rich employee that simply collected money that's what you did don't off on the back pat yourself on the back that you've held it down a job for 30 40 years very very good congratulations that takes a lot of discipline well done but you're not an investor you're a collector you simply collected the snp for 30 40 years all right that's all you did and you did better than putting it in the bank however for those of watching this show that don't have a six-figure salary that want to make money out of money you can make more money than the idiots who just collect money because what you're doing is understanding what the market actually does you're understanding what money really is it's power and control it's not a spending device spend it when it makes money by itself when it starts to multiply then you can start to spend money from itself all right that's how that's how you do it so we have patience and we wait we understand what the market is telling us we don't guess we don't gamble we understand what the market is telling us and what it's telling us in my opinion based upon numbers and i like numbers because one plus one equals two you can say equals three you can say the world is flat you can say we never went to we never went to space you can say all sorts of stuff doesn't make it true just because you say it it's your truth but your truth is rubbish because you are stupid one plus one equals two and the fact of the matter is inflation is staying up no matter what was in the report today i think oil is going to go back up to 150 i think the market's going to crash i think we're in all kinds of bloody problems and i've got no reason to think differently and every single thing tells me that and when i look at my portfolio and i see that i have beaten the market for three years in a row not just once twice but three x'd it three in a row i've got to be doing something right 98 of our members 98 of our viewers are paid members we've got over i think 720 discordians and nearly all of them are pro we have no sponsors we're making money we're great we're doubling our rate of growth every month we're heading towards a million subscribers by the end of next year be the first child to get to a billion that's 13 years of work by the way me sitting here uh for 13 years and i'm prepared to do it i'm prepared to do that so there you go anyway we're watching uh we're watching coca-cola go down we're waiting we're not buying anything let me go to uh uh comments and questions i've just realized something i've just got to fix something a minute we uh me and sensei i both had these issues the last couple of weeks we keep seeing things uh disconnect it's very very frustrating uh but it is what it is we have to keep while we're live uh you've heard sensei mentioned it this morning screen disappear there's there's updates to stuff and you know uh it's uh it makes this job difficult sometimes because on the fly things break but there you go they do it is what it is right so let's go for the market as expected coca-cola is going down the s&p is also down i don't like it so i'm not going to chase it i've got 800 grand here to buy a dip a really nice one um but i can also get the inflection bounces and all the rest of it and which what we're looking for so let's go and look at coca-cola yeah 81.20 nice not buying it though not buying it though let's look at virgin galactic look at the space stocks yep still down we're going to buy spacex though one and a half million dollars live on the show so let me go to what should i do now oh that's right i know what i was gonna do we're gonna leave uh we're gonna we're gonna focus on coca cola for a minute [01:27:20] Speaker 5: right let me focus on coca-cola for a minute just gonna keep my eye on it there it is i'm keep them keep my eye on it let's look at the broader [01:27:32] Speaker 1: market yeah crypto going down the toilet see xrp 120 and we're not buying any of that at all that would be a really really bad investment that would be stupid so what we're going to do in about five uh quarter past the hour quarter past the hour we're going to have our first discord event of the day so i'm going to onboard anybody that wants to join us this morning live right now so here are the links you need for everything first of all if you want to get all the five minute uh five second ten second clips every 30 minutes 24 hours a day x or instagram some of you prefer instagram all right oh try that again there you go there's x or instagram i've also shared with you our newsletter discord if you want to join us in 15 minutes quarter past the hour we're going to be there for the um for our first stage event of the day watch coca-cola still falling down very very nice very very nice crypto going down quicker and quicker and this is perfect this is a perfect day for us as investors um so awesome stuff um i'm now going to give you some other links that you might find really useful all right some things i most of you uh haven't done look here on the home page of the channel where you are right now take a moment to do this if you are if you love this channel love the community and you want more from it for free here's how you get it first of all there's the extra channel 24 hours a day we replay what you just missed so unlike bloomberg who show you the bloody same video every night we play you what you've just missed like an hour ago so when i finish this extra will be playing what you missed an hour ago see what you missed it tells you on the stream it's a restream we're not trying to tell you it's live that's why i have a clock on the channel so why do i do it people tune in at different times of the day different countries and want to watch it live what they just miss so they can chat to people also our supporters and our lucas aids and discordians who want to see us become the first one billion channel watch this channel they put it on mute they walk away they let it run they do that because they want to help us grow into other channels sorry other markets other countries around the world oh we got a special guest let me read this out [01:30:03] Speaker 7: a diesel underscore aida tipped one dollar and 99 cents through super chat xlm thumbs up emoji [01:30:10] Speaker 1: hello lucas aids you make us some money good luck to you yeah so here is live now on extra this is where we'll be in a minute please just go and subscribe for free to extra you can watch for for free listen for free now because it runs 24 hours a day we would get bots and trolls and scammers obviously we would so we charge 99 cents to be a member to chat you can watch for free listen for free but if you want to be able to chat it's 99 cents because i can't monitor it 24 7 so that's what we do so if you want to uh join us uh in the in extra it's 99 cents to be able to chat we've also got the clips channel remember i just told you i share everything as clips all these little clips go to the clips channel there it is all my little clips look they go up there all the time look there's all the clips see that look look at that a few seconds ago look at all these these are all the reports from the um the fed report sorry the inflator report a few seconds ago let's see that there's donald trump yesterday 500 views now you can watch this for free there's no ads at all it's completely free i'll provide you a free channel no ads no memberships nothing free why doesn't everyone today subscribe to the clips channel all the little bits you want for free with no interruption no ads no there you go there's the clips clips all right everybody you might like to jump on the clips channel one more and then we're going to go over to uh um our live event in discord then we have the music channel where we have the xrp song the virgin galactic song and we have a concert every friday celebrating people's birthdays having a party having a beer and this is uh my music channel i'm the world piano man you can see videos with me in my vegas show my showgirls all over the world i've got paul mccartney elton john you see me with them there is the video there's the link martin lucas there is the mood channel all right there you go right let's get out of that a minute let's set up discord let's go to live q a as well in the chat coca-cola is selling off absolutely fantastically this is exactly what we want exactly what we expected but i'm protecting my money i'm safe yes and p not doing anything up slightly now virgin galactic has come back palantir is soaring up nearly four point oh my god just laugh that people do that all right amazon apple n phase energy so now coke will sell sell off and keep selling this is great it's the piggy bank so let everybody get excited let everybody think the numbers were great let everyone buy it let it go down i'm not gonna buy this yet i'm gonna wait and i don't care if i miss it i don't care if it bounces from here because some people say what if it bounces from here martin you got a discount yeah what if it bounces from here don't care too close to 90 there's a bigger crash coming even though it's a defensive play and if i buy i'll buy with a quarter of a million dollars today live on the screen you will see me buy i mean you won't because i'm about to finish and going to discord but in discord in a minute there's a very good chance i will buy live a quarter of a million a quarter of a million and then another quarter of a million if it goes lower to average it down all right so let me set up my discord right now and on board anybody who wishes to join this is your chance to join before we start the event so events create an event stage channel pro event yeah are you ready drop that there uh it'll be in 15 minutes just quarter past the hour are you ready upload that uh apply that next create the event so it goes live in 11 minutes to be precise copy the link i'm not going to put it in youtube that seems pointless because you can't watch it anyway it's for those in on discord i'm now going on board everybody that wants to join us on discord as well [01:34:45] Speaker 5: um at everyone live now [01:34:56] Speaker 1: send there you go i've just sent that to 700 discordians all right we are there so now if anyone uh applied this morning i can actually onboard you right now so did anybody do it let's have a look um so i'm going to read out your your comments because you have to go through a our interview process because we don't want sponsors idiots trolls anyone like that we want investors that can provide value we want you to provide value to our server our server all right it's not just about watching me it's about providing value to our server so daniel martin new market new and ta uh make money build wealth the correct way all right okay let's have a look at you have you applied before are you a scammer have you tried to uh okay i'm looking at different processes so i'm going to interview you now here is your information here is your video you need to watch an eight minute video to understand what discord's all about so we want you to be educated up chief 1988 to follow the trays like coca-cola let's have a look at you oh you have applied before [01:36:30] Speaker 5: so um okay and that wasn't accepted so um okay um you applied before so this is how we do our security checks [01:36:53] Speaker 1: okay okay okay here we go who else um redeemed to grow my understanding on the market hopefully green more wisdom from martin that's very nice uh you also applied uh recently so let me send you a message [01:37:23] Speaker 5: uh we've got 10 minutes before uh discord haven't we nine minutes uh all right redeemed [01:37:43] Speaker 1: uh this is martin lucas the owner of the server and uh you may have seen me on youtube tv you've applied before in the past i can't believe this um oh chief just became a member 80808 has become a member all right thank you um sorry i'm live on youtube at the same time you did apply before could you tell me what happened last time uh share share your thoughts with me in this application thank you okay there's another one so we're trying to process as many as we can for you right now we want to provide value of service to everybody not just have millions of people join that's not what we're about uh mabilis to make money well that's not really what the server is about it's about community we make money but uh so i'm going to interview you with caution um because it's about providing value to our members that's how you win not just what i can get out of it i want to make money i want to join to make money these the these are the sort of people that we don't want we want people that provide value and service so we all learn together um i want to join to keep up information market okay learn from fellow traders lovely newbie hello newbie how are you where are you from i've just sent you your application robert you're a new trader you've you've joined uh a group called vwap okay i can see where you come from [01:39:44] Speaker 5: um let's have a look here [01:39:52] Speaker 1: robert i've sent you your information cyan i'm a beginner i want to learn how to become a successful trader okay your application that's clean [01:40:06] Speaker 5: your ip looks good all right [01:40:11] Speaker 1: you have probably if you use vpns and try to cloud you who you are we recognize that and we don't let people in like that mark hello mark i'm a new to enhance my trading skills okay i've got to go i've got my uh event coming up coco is bouncing back i'm not buying it here looks like sensei is taking care of you already i think we're good all right fantastic now remember if you choose pro you can send me a friend request i'll accept it right so i'm not buying that little dip there not interested in that that's not enough for me to sell my treasury bills not really worth it um let's go back to comments and questions we've got four minutes and then we're going to wrap this up so let me show i'm now going to rewind the extra channel to this show all right so what i do now is i'm going to put this show today's show in the playlist that you watch on the extra channel so i'm going to send you over there everybody else will be on discord with me of course but now you can catch the news you missed this morning i've given you the links of all the things that you need so you can see all the posts coming out shortly so let me um put [01:41:31] Speaker 5: this event where we're live right now in in the extra channel restream there it is done [01:41:44] Speaker 1: all right now you'll see me switch over to the extra channel which is over here i will add the event if you're on extra channel now you can see me doing it i'm adding that to the playlist there it is right at the top i'm taking it back to the beginning [01:42:13] Speaker 5: so you can see it [01:42:18] Speaker 1: all right there you go and now when i send you the extra channel you can watch what you missed with audiences from around the world in 76 different countries so now if you watch the extra channel this is live you'll see it get updated if you watch here you see me in you see me in there look taking it back to the beginning that's for those that want to support the channel help us grow all that stuff but also they want to chat live so i'll go in here and i'll go ohio and you can join me in the extra channel and there it is that's now replaying what you've just missed from the beginning uh with live conversation if you want to talk to your fellow investors about what you're seeing on the screen so i'm going to send you all there right now just before i do some questions let's have a look boo uh i should go invite brit hello what's going on have i missed some comments spin the flipping wheel we're not doing that right now i asked yesterday but i know you the value for a stock if oh i asked yesterday but oh how do you value for a stock okay well how i value for a stock you did ask me that yesterday and i'm glad you've reminded me thank you very much have i got time yeah i've got three minutes okay so let me explain exactly so how do i value stock well i let's go into say tesla for example tesla this is how i do it i'm going to give you the tools i use there's alpha spread and seeking alpha okay i've dropped you in the chat for you so thank you defense for coming back i'm really really pleased that you did answer that again okay okay here we go so the way i look at a value of a stock i start off excuse me by looking at the intrinsic valuation so the intrinsic valuation of tesla is 69 now you need to understand what the intrinsic valuation is sounds crazy right intrinsic valuation is 69 that is what it actually produces the stock is always overbought too expensive this is this gives me an indication this is not enough this is a starting point intrinsic valuation is warren buffett's favorite way to value the market the stock but we don't guess that's not enough all right 69 dollars we then look that gives you an indication so that we're already overbought then you can go into any search engine and type um the the the forward pe you've got the forward pe or the reverse uh the lagging indicator the forward pe tells you looking at uh at the uh current projections of where the price is going the pe ratio so you might want to look at that the lagging indicator as well as where we are today with the data that we have well for a growth stock you can pay 25 30 40 but not 800 not a thousand right times earnings ridiculous a lot of these growth stocks are like that hence the volatility so again you're not buying value you're just buying hype you look at the profitability how much money does it make right well tesla is 46 percent it's great but it also has some areas where it loses money as well 46 it's not as great as you think it is right um solvency how long is it going to be it will it remain in business 86 likely to remain in business yes it's not going anywhere i'm just watching these portfolios we're seeing the snp going up today that's crazy i'm not buying that and coca-cola because of it it's going back down again that's what i want to buy i don't know i do not want to buy the hype i want to buy what everyone's selling to buy the hype all right so keeping my eye on that a minute anyway come back to this for you crypto's going up how mental is that all right all right do what you want to do i'm not doing it so 86 is the solvency how likely it's going to remain in business so now you can buy with confidence right then you go down here and what you're looking for is the value because the price has to equal the value so the price is going up is the value going up is the revenue going up yes it is but look it's pretty flat now tesla's not what it used to be but we're expecting in a few years time in 2030 this is when the robots are going to come out this is ron baron oh we're going to four thousand dollars and all this bloody nonsense all right so yeah that's all very well and good but that's years away all right so that gives you an indication of the value operating income are we are we going sideways well yeah we're doing four percent okay but the future is 20 30 years away now you've got value net income is it going up it's up two percent on the last earnings okay does it justify the price okay that's another way uh put all these things together then you look at the balance sheet the assets the cash well we we already know what the the balance sheet uh the the the the debt situation is because it gave us a a solvency score of 89 i mean i haven't got time to go through all of this but that just gives you an indication another thing you want to look at is the gross margin operating margin net margin what you're left with net margin is going down test has been dropping a lot recently all right so we're we're actually making less money in real terms right so it's not always a great story but yeah everybody will tell you tesla is absolutely fantastic no it's not and when we get spacex dump all over it it's going to go down even more so that's how i work out value uh was that of any help to you uh who was it was asking me that that was i can't [01:48:15] Speaker 7: believe this at has a ventura 1969 x has become a member hey thank you much indeed listen guys i'm late [01:48:24] Speaker 1: for my own party i'm on discord right now so i've got to go uh you're now going to go to the extra channel let me give you the link live now on extra this is what you just missed you can watch that now it's really important live now on extra i'm there on discord right now live now on extra pin that to the top i'm late to my own party can you believe it uh let me just do that replace the pin all right i onboarded people on discord i'll see you over there on discord right now thank you much indeed be back for the closing bell and more information as it happens not buying any of this i'm staying right where i am very very happy and uh yeah sometimes it's best to do nothing take care of yourselves and each other click on the link or it'll take you there automatically oh thanks a lot very instructive if you want that software there is in the chat alpha spread and seeking alpha a defense 89 tip [01:49:23] Speaker 7: two canadian dollars through super chat thanks a lot very instructive d you're very welcome i know [01:49:30] Speaker 1: the ceo of alpha spread so i get a deal that cnbc and blueburn can't get it basically makes my membership for free so we've got our own page on their website we've got literally our own page on their site it's really cool so go to alpha spread seeking alpha if you want those things right that's it from me i'll see you on extra on discord right now and back later on for our next part of youtube uh the closing bell take care of yourselves and each other bye-bye for now